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2019 strength of schedule analysis – updated

2019 strength of schedule analysis – updated

With more betting operators now offering their season win total lines, we decided to revisit our previous work and update it using the win totals from Draftkings. (Closer to week one we’ll look to use a mid-market type of approach)

While things have not changed dramatically, using the Draftkings lines does change the order slightly.

We’ve gone into a little more depth this time around, looking at home / away splits (as we did previously) and with the full season draw now available, we’ve had a look at four-game groupings.

Previously the Pats were considered to have the easiest schedule, although our revised version has the Browns in that spot, ahead of the Pats, Bills, Jets and Giants.

A few interesting observations:

The Colts have a mad home / away split – easiest slate of home games and the most difficult slate of away games.

At home, they play the Falcons, Raiders, Texans, Broncos, Dolphins, Jaguars, Titans and Panthers. At present, our projections have them a 4.5 point favorite or better in these games.

Away from home, they play the Chargers, Titans, Chiefs, Steelers, Texans, Buccaneers, Saints and Jaguars. While we project that they’ll be favorites in three of these games, it’ll only be -3.5 points (Bucs) and -0.5 points against the Titans and Jaguars.

The Cowboys enjoy a soft start to the season, starting with the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, before matching up against the Saints away from home (who they managed to defeat last year).

The Dolphins have a brutal start, meeting the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers in their first four games. We’ll need to see some Fitzmagic is they are to avoid an 0-4 start to the season.

Here is our full breakdown.

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