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Comparing time in the lead v season wins

Comparing time in the lead v season wins

We’ve put together some analysis of the amount of time that each of the teams have led this year.

While the predictive value is probably limited (live betting?), it is an interesting exercise all the same.

In addition, we’ve also charted by many wins each of the teams has, which helps identify some anomalies in the results.

Naturally the good teams are at the top of the table in respect of minutes led (Patriots, Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers,) and conversely the also-rans are towards the bottom (Bengals, Giants, Redskins, Dolphins), however a few teams stick out.

Here’s a couple of examples:

Comeback Kings: the Seahawks rank just 23rd in terms of minutes led, and remarkably they are behind the Cardinals and only just ahead of the Jets, despite the fact they have 9 wins.

At first this didn’t look right, but when you look at specific games, their ability to get the ‘dub’ despite leading for a minority of the game is remarkable – and a credit to their tremendous QB.

Minutes led in their wins this season (rounded up/down) – 17, 25, 50, 24, 16, 56, 7, 15 and 51).

Going Off Too Early: on the flip side of this discussion we have the Denver Broncos (if you’re a Broncos fan you could be excused for a bit of premature celebration during the year).

Like the Seahawks number, this didn’t look right also, but again when you drill down you notice that:

  1. When the Broncos win they establish a lead and hold onto it for the majority of the game – they led for 56, 55 and 51 mins in their wins.
  2. The Broncos have also led for significant periods of games only to get run down in the shadows of the winning post (Jaguars – led for 39 mins but lost to a late field goal, Colts – led for 43 mins but the same ending as the Colts game, Vikings again – led for 50 mins but ended up squandering a 20 point lead).

Here’s the summary for all 32 teams.

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