Weekly Golf Intelligence
pgaNo Cut03 May

Cadillac Championship

Trump National Doral (Blue Monster) · 72-player field

Model Rankings

#PlayerAdjSGOTTAPPARGPUTTWin%T10%
1Scheffler, Scottie+2.35+0.66+0.79+0.45+0.4611.853.9
2Young, Cameron+1.60+0.60+0.39+0.23+0.385.134.0
3Henley, Russell+1.43+0.26+0.52+0.38+0.272.124.9
4Morikawa, Collin+1.38+0.41+0.81+0.15+0.021.823.4
5Matsuyama, Hideki+1.30+0.03+0.65+0.38+0.242.221.7
6Kim, Si Woo+1.26+0.51+0.52+0.23-0.002.224.2
7Rose, Justin+1.19+0.17+0.55+0.18+0.293.824.9
8Fleetwood, Tommy+1.17+0.30+0.39+0.23+0.253.724.0
9McNealy, Maverick+1.13+0.31+0.06+0.27+0.491.920.1
10Burns, Sam+1.10+0.21+0.28-0.04+0.662.422.1
11Gotterup, Chris+1.06+0.52+0.22+0.12+0.202.021.7
12Bhatia, Akshay+1.05+0.06+0.62-0.00+0.382.520.3
13Smalley, Alex+1.01+0.32+0.33+0.13+0.231.917.3
14Hojgaard, Nicolai+0.98+0.30+0.42+0.08+0.181.316.9
15Spaun, J.J.+0.98+0.39+0.63+0.09-0.131.115.9

Top Contenders

Scheffler, Scottie

+2.35
Adj SG
11.8%
Win
53.9%
Top 10

Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite this week, and for good reason — his adjusted SG of 2.354 leads the field by a significant margin, with elite contributions across every facet of the game. His approach play (0.794 SG APP) and ball-striking off the tee (0.655 SG OTT) are particularly well-suited for Doral's demanding layout, where length and precision into greens are premium. With a 53.9% Top 10 rate and near-perfect cut percentage, fading him at nearly 12% outright win equity is a tough sell.

Young, Cameron

+1.60
Adj SG
5.1%
Win
34.0%
Top 10

**Cameron Young | Trump National Doral** Young's elite ball-striking package makes him a premier threat at Doral, where his +0.604 SG OTT and +0.393 SG APP give him the length and precision to attack this demanding layout. What separates him from other bombers is the complete profile — he's not leaking strokes anywhere, with positive contributions across all four SG categories including a reliable +0.379 SG PUTT. At 5.13% win probability and a 97.2% cut rate, Young is one of the safest high-upside plays on the board.

Henley, Russell

+1.43
Adj SG
2.1%
Win
24.9%
Top 10

Henley enters Doral as a well-rounded value play, posting positive strokes gained across all four categories — a profile that holds up on any layout. His 0.521 SG APP is the engine of his game, and consistent ball-strikers who also save strokes on and around the greens (ARG: 0.377, PUTT: 0.267) tend to have high floors at demanding courses like the Blue Monster. With a 97.2% cut rate and nearly 25% top-10 probability, Henley is a low-variance contender worth prioritizing in your lineup.

First Round Leader

PlayerFRL%Fair $WaveR1 Time
Scheffler, Scottie7.9%12.66AM10:50
Rose, Justin4.6%21.74AM11:00
Fleetwood, Tommy3.9%25.64PM14:15
Young, Cameron3.9%25.64AM10:50
Day, Jason3.2%31.25PM14:45
Woodland, Gary2.8%35.71AM11:20
Henley, Russell2.5%40.00PM13:40
Straka, Sepp2.5%40.00AM10:25
Bradley, Keegan2.3%43.48PM14:35
Theegala, Sahith2.3%43.48AM09:10
Bhatia, Akshay2.2%45.45AM10:35
Thorbjornsen, Michael2.2%45.45PM13:30
Hovland, Viktor2.1%47.62PM14:15
Burns, Sam2.0%50.00PM13:50
Blanchet, Chandler2.0%50.00PM12:45

Value Picks

PlayerOur Win%Market $EdgeT10 Edge
Rose, Justin3.8%5001.00+3.79pp+8.47pp
Fleetwood, Tommy3.7%5001.00+3.69pp-1.54pp
Day, Jason2.7%5001.00+2.68pp+6.48pp
Straka, Sepp2.7%1251.00+2.62pp+3.78pp
Theegala, Sahith2.4%5001.00+2.38pp-0.02pp
Burns, Sam2.4%5001.00+2.38pp+2.50pp
Hovland, Viktor2.3%5001.00+2.28pp-0.35pp
Woodland, Gary2.2%5001.00+2.18pp+10.25pp
Matsuyama, Hideki2.2%5001.00+2.18pp+0.15pp
Bradley, Keegan2.1%5001.00+2.08pp+2.63pp
Henley, Russell2.1%2751.00+2.06pp-1.38pp
Bhatia, Akshay2.5%203.26+2.01pp+4.92pp
Gotterup, Chris2.0%5001.00+1.98pp-0.23pp
Thorbjornsen, Michael1.9%5001.00+1.88pp-0.16pp
McNealy, Maverick1.9%5001.00+1.88pp-3.65pp

The Call

TBD — see contenders
MEDIUMOUTRIGHT @ 0.00
Auto-generated preview; the_call set manually post-review.

SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card

Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 03 May

For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice