Weekly Golf Intelligence
PGA07 Apr

Masters Tournament

Augusta National Golf Club · 89-player field

Model Rankings

#PlayerAdjSGOTTAPPARGPUTTWin%T10%
1Scheffler, Scottie8.743.0
2Schauffele, Xander6.334.7
3Aberg, Ludvig5.529.2
4DeChambeau, Bryson4.827.1
5Rose, Justin3.523.6
6Rahm, Jon3.326.5
7Hojgaard, Nicolai2.823.7
8McIlroy, Rory2.723.6
9Morikawa, Collin2.622.7
10Fitzpatrick, Matt2.423.3
11Knapp, Jake2.323.6
12Bhatia, Akshay2.318.6
13Conners, Corey2.217.3
14Gotterup, Chris2.018.4
15Fleetwood, Tommy2.019.3

Top Contenders

Scheffler, Scottie

Adj SG
8.7%
Win
43.0%
Top 10

Scheffler enters Augusta as the clear favorite at 8.7% to win — nearly double most of the field — backed by a 43% Top 10 probability that underscores his elite floor. The reigning world No. 1 has the all-around ball-striking game that Augusta demands, and the model sees him as the most likely name on the trophy Sunday.

Schauffele, Xander

Adj SG
6.3%
Win
34.7%
Top 10

Schauffele owns a 6.3% win probability at Augusta — elite territory at a course that demands the precise ball-striking and clutch putting he consistently delivers. With a 34.7% Top 10 probability, the model sees him as a near-lock to contend deep into the weekend. If he finally breaks through at a major, Augusta sets up as the most likely venue.

Aberg, Ludvig

Adj SG
5.5%
Win
29.2%
Top 10

Ludvig Åberg enters Augusta with a 5.5% win probability — elite territory that puts him firmly in the top tier of contenders this week. His 29.2% Top 10 rate signals consistent scoring upside on a course that demands the kind of precise ball-striking and length off the tee that defines his game. At his price, Åberg represents one of the highest-ceiling plays in the field.

Value Picks

PlayerOur Win%Market $EdgeT10 Edge
Hojgaard, Nicolai2.8%81.00+1.59pp+6.92pp
Conners, Corey2.2%127.26+1.41pp+7.87pp
Knapp, Jake2.3%89.58+1.17pp+6.01pp
Bhatia, Akshay2.3%84.57+1.07pp+2.20pp
Schauffele, Xander6.3%19.00+1.01pp+3.34pp
Rose, Justin3.5%39.53+0.97pp+12.55pp
McNealy, Maverick1.9%101.00+0.95pp-1.29pp
Kim, Michael1.1%351.00+0.86pp+4.76pp
Bradley, Keegan1.2%301.00+0.83pp+3.35pp
Hatton, Tyrrell1.6%121.61+0.83pp+6.54pp
Gotterup, Chris2.0%76.57+0.74pp+2.38pp
Keefer, Johnny0.9%501.00+0.70pp+4.89pp
Woodland, Gary1.2%186.66+0.66pp+5.63pp
Reitan, Kristoffer0.9%351.00+0.63pp+1.81pp
Aberg, Ludvig5.5%20.61+0.60pp-0.03pp
Gerard, Ryan1.1%201.00+0.58pp-1.59pp
Hall, Harry0.9%301.00+0.52pp+2.44pp
Griffin, Ben1.0%207.23+0.50pp+0.87pp
Mckibbin , Tom0.7%501.00+0.46pp+5.87pp
Homa, Max0.8%301.77+0.42pp+3.30pp
Watson, Bubba0.5%751.00+0.41pp+4.42pp
Berger, Daniel0.8%220.86+0.39pp+1.35pp
Neergaard-Petersen, Rasmus0.5%501.00+0.31pp+3.58pp
Im, Sungjae0.9%181.60+0.30pp+5.02pp

SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card

Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 07 Apr

For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice