Truist Championship
Quail Hollow Club · 72-player field
Model Rankings
| # | Player | AdjSG | OTT | APP | ARG | PUTT | Win% | T10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schauffele, Xander | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0 | 43.1 |
| 2 | McIlroy, Rory | — | — | — | — | — | 8.0 | 41.3 |
| 3 | Aberg, Ludvig | — | — | — | — | — | 4.6 | 30.6 |
| 4 | Young, Cameron | — | — | — | — | — | 4.1 | 30.2 |
| 5 | Woodland, Gary | — | — | — | — | — | 3.4 | 23.1 |
| 6 | Fitzpatrick, Matt | — | — | — | — | — | 3.3 | 30.5 |
| 7 | Fleetwood, Tommy | — | — | — | — | — | 3.2 | 23.8 |
| 8 | MacIntyre, Robert | — | — | — | — | — | 2.8 | 21.8 |
| 9 | Scott, Adam | — | — | — | — | — | 2.5 | 23.7 |
| 10 | Hovland, Viktor | — | — | — | — | — | 2.5 | 20.3 |
| 11 | Day, Jason | — | — | — | — | — | 2.4 | 19.0 |
| 12 | Burns, Sam | — | — | — | — | — | 2.4 | 19.9 |
| 13 | McNealy, Maverick | — | — | — | — | — | 2.3 | 19.1 |
| 14 | Hojgaard, Nicolai | — | — | — | — | — | 2.1 | 19.0 |
| 15 | Cantlay, Patrick | — | — | — | — | — | 2.1 | 21.6 |
Top Contenders
Schauffele, Xander
**Xander Schauffele | Quail Hollow Club** Schauffele enters the week as one of the strongest win candidates in the field at 8.0%, and his 43.1% Top 10 probability signals elite consistency at this venue. His ball-striking precision and ability to navigate demanding par-4s make him a natural fit for Quail Hollow's demanding layout. Fade him at your own risk.
McIlroy, Rory
**Rory McIlroy** enters Quail Hollow as the clear statistical favorite, posting a 7.95% win probability that dwarfs the field and a 41.25% Top 10 rate that underscores his elite floor this week. This is essentially his home course — he owns the place, having won here multiple times — and the model is simply reflecting what the tape already shows. Fade him at your own risk.
Aberg, Ludvig
Ludvig Åberg's 4.6% win probability puts him firmly in the elite tier of this field at Quail Hollow, and a 30.6% Top 10 rate signals consistent scoring upside on a course that rewards length and ball-striking — two areas where Åberg excels. The Swede has the game to not just contend but close, making him one of the highest-ceiling plays of the week.
Value Picks
| Player | Our Win% | Market $ | Edge | T10 Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodland, Gary | 3.4% | 81.00 | +2.15pp | +12.57pp |
| Day, Jason | 2.4% | 68.62 | +0.98pp | +5.25pp |
| Yellamaraju, Sudarshan | 1.4% | 186.70 | +0.89pp | +6.65pp |
| Kim, Michael | 1.2% | 301.00 | +0.84pp | +6.15pp |
| MacIntyre, Robert | 2.8% | 48.19 | +0.72pp | +0.70pp |
| McNealy, Maverick | 2.3% | 61.20 | +0.62pp | -0.12pp |
| Blanchet, Chandler | 0.7% | 701.00 | +0.57pp | +5.72pp |
| Harman, Brian | 1.0% | 176.00 | +0.44pp | +1.27pp |
| Berger, Daniel | 1.1% | 146.53 | +0.43pp | +0.53pp |
| Wallace, Matt | 0.9% | 233.81 | +0.43pp | +4.83pp |
| Smotherman, Austin | 0.6% | 390.69 | +0.39pp | +2.31pp |
| Putnam, Andrew | 0.6% | 451.00 | +0.38pp | +5.64pp |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | 2.1% | 56.00 | +0.35pp | +0.20pp |
| Im, Sungjae | 0.7% | 301.00 | +0.33pp | +2.79pp |
| Hovland, Viktor | 2.5% | 46.00 | +0.32pp | +0.20pp |
| Lipsky, David | 0.4% | 1001.00 | +0.32pp | +4.44pp |
| Burns, Sam | 2.4% | 47.21 | +0.31pp | +0.41pp |
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 07 May
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice