Week 22 Recap
Muirfield Village Golf Club · The International · June 4-7, 2026
Five T10 finishes from one card. That's the best single-event result the model has produced all season. At the Memorial, Clark finished 3rd, Burns T4, Reitan and Fitzpatrick Alex both T6, and McNealy rounded out the T10. Three of those five came from the Radar tier at just 0.25 units each. The deep value list approach proved itself again.
The Memorial — Muirfield Village
Five from Fifteen
One in three value picks hit the top 10 at Muirfield Village. The course profile (APP 39%) rewarded approach specialists — Poston won with +8.2 SG:APP across four rounds, and our value picks who made the weekend all carried strong approach numbers. The 72-player field with no cut meant every pick played all four rounds, giving the model's skill estimates more time to materialise.
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wyndham Clark | $101 | ✅ 0.5u | 3rd | ✓ |
| 2 | Sam Burns | $71 | 👀 0.25u | T4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Kristoffer Reitan | $128 | ✅ 0.5u | T6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Alex Fitzpatrick | $176 | 👀 0.25u | T6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Maverick McNealy | $100 | 👀 0.25u | T10 | ✓ |
| 6 | Patrick Cantlay | $38 | ✅ 0.5u | T17 | ✗ |
| 7 | Aaron Rai | $101 | ✅ 0.5u | T19 | ✗ |
| 8 | Kurt Kitayama | $81 | ✅ 0.5u | T22 | ✗ |
| 9 | Brandt Snedeker | $461 | ✅ 0.5u | T36 | ✗ |
| 10 | Mac Meissner | $186 | ✅ 0.5u | T46 | ✗ |
| 11 | Alex Smalley | $56 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 12 | Jordan Spieth | $54 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 13 | Nicolai Hojgaard | $82 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
The Radar tier stole the show. Burns (T4), Fitzpatrick Alex (T6), and McNealy (T10) were all 👀 Radar picks at 0.25 units. Combined with Sterne's $501 win two weeks ago (also Radar), the lowest conviction tier is quietly outperforming. The value list works best when you back the full card, not just the headline picks. Meissner disappointed at T46 after the headline treatment. The Colonial-to-Memorial course-fit narrative looked perfect on paper (APP 38% to APP 39%) but it didn't translate. A reminder that course-fit is a probability tilt, not a guarantee. Reitan continues to deliver. T6 here after winning the Truist Championship and finishing T44 at the PGA. At $128 he's becoming one of the most reliable mid-tier value picks of the season. J.T. Poston won at -12 — a player our model had at just 0.2% while independent benchmarks and the market had him significantly higher. This is the pattern we've been tracking: players where the broader consensus sees value that our model misses. We're evolving our approach to better incorporate that signal rather than suppress it.
KLM Open — The International
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcus Helligkilde | $381 | ✅ 0.5u | T14 | ✗ |
| 2 | Scott Jamieson | $326 | ✅ 0.5u | T21 | ✗ |
| 3 | Guido Migliozzi | $109 | ✅ 0.5u | T28 | ✗ |
| 4 | JC Ritchie | $72 | 👀 0.25u | T45 | ✗ |
| 5 | Kevin Na | $351 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 6 | Jeff Winther | $290 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 7 | Todd Clements | $146 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
A tough Euro card. Chacarra won at -11 — another player the broader market had significantly higher than our model. No T10 hits from the value list, with Helligkilde (T14) the closest. Na has now missed the cut in back-to-back Euro events after being our Best Bet two weeks ago. The model consistently sees edge in his PGA Tour pedigree against weaker Euro fields, but the results aren't backing it up. We're reassessing his positioning on future Euro cards.
The Week in Numbers
What We're Learning
The Radar tier keeps delivering
Burns T4, Fitzpatrick Alex T6, McNealy T10 — all at 0.25 units. Add Sterne's $501 win and Rai's $281 PGA Championship win (both Radar). The lowest-conviction tier has produced the most surprising results this season. The takeaway: even the back end of the value list carries genuine signal. Subscribing for the full 15 picks, not just the top 5, is where the edge lives.
No-cut signature events suit the model
Five T10 hits from a 72-player, no-cut field. When every pick plays all four rounds, the model's skill estimates have more opportunity to materialise. In full-field events with a cut, variance is higher because strong players can miss the cut on a bad day. The Memorial's format removed that noise.
Model evolution in progress
Both winners this week (Poston, Chacarra) came from players where independent benchmarks and market consensus were significantly more bullish than our model. This is a recurring pattern we've been tracking across the season. We're developing adjustments to better incorporate that consensus signal at the top of the field while preserving the mid-tier value identification that continues to produce consistent T10 hits.
Season Scoreboard
| Event | Best Hit | Headline Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Beach | Snedeker WON ($351) 🏆 | Brown T9 | ✅ 0.5u |
| Masters | Rose T3 ($39) | Schauffele T9 | — |
| Catalunya | Ritchie T3 ($81) | — | Euro pick hits |
| PGA Championship | Rai WON ($281) 🏆 | Pick #12 of 15 | 👀 0.25u |
| Byron Nelson | Suber 4th ($326) | Jaeger T9, Bauchou T6 | ✅ 0.5u |
| Soudal Open | Sterne WON ($501) 🏆 | Kinhult T2, Schmidt T8 | 👀 0.25u |
| Charles Schwab | Meissner T3 ($71) | Woodland T6 | ✅ 0.5u |
| Austrian Alpine | Luiten T7 ($151) | Steinlechner T7 | ✅ 0.5u |
| Memorial | Clark 3rd, Burns T4 ($101) | 5 T10 hits — season best | ✅ 0.5u |
Three outright winners. Nine events with T10 hits out of ten reviewed. The model finds consistent mid-tier value in the $50–$500 range. The Euro card had a quiet week, but the PGA Tour value list is firing on all cylinders.
Up Next
The US Open at Oakmont is on the horizon. Before that, the regular PGA Tour and DP World Tour schedule continues. Preview drops Thursday.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 09 June
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