The ‘second half’ of the NRL split round (16) kicks off with the St. George Illawarra Dragons facing the league-leading Melbourne Storm at WIN Stadium – 7:50 pm AET kickoff.
Dragons: the Dragons returned to the winner’s list last week with a much-needed win, as -5.5 point favourites, against the Cowboys at Wollongong. The win was just their second in their last eight games.
Storm: the Storm continued their winning run with a hard fought win against the Sydney Roosters last Friday, as a -1.5 point favourite, at the Adelaide Oval. The win extended their run to six.
Cloudy.Very high (95%) chance of showers. Winds west to southwesterly 15 to 20 km/h shifting easterly in the evening. Max 17 degrees.
Per the Bureau of Meteorology
Random Stat(s) – 2011 and onwards
Paul McGregor has won just 6 of 17 of games with Ben Cummins as the lead referee.
Player Changes / Milestones:
IN Darren Nicholls, Jackson Ford, Jai Field, Josh Kerr, Mitchell Allgood, Patrick Kaufusi, Timoteo Lafai, Tristan Sailor
OUT Ben Hunt, Corey Norman, Lachlan Maranta, Paul Vaughan, Tariq Sims, Tyson Frizell
IN Albert Vete, Billy Walters, Jahrome Hughes, Marion Seve, Sandor Earl, Solomone Kata, Tino Faasuamaleaui, Tom Eisenhuth
OUT Cameron Munster, Christian Welch, Dale Finucane, Felise Kaufusi, Josh Addo-Carr, Will Chambers,
Dragons: W/L 6-8 (all), 3-3 (home). Line performance 5-9 (all), 2-4 (home).
The Dragons last TWO home games have gone UNDER the game total.
Storm: W/L 12-2 (all), 6-1 (away). Line performance 8-6 (all), 5-2 (away).
The Storm have WON their last FOUR games with the start.
Betting / Selections:
The Storm are a -6.5 point favourite. The game total is between 36.5 to 37.5.
These State of Origin games are difficult to read, given the team upheaval, and as a consequence of that we don’t have a strong view in this game with it comes to the line. If we were to price it ourselves, we most likely also be at -6.5 / 6.5.
The total looks a little more interesting, however. Given the team changes, and more specifically, two pairs of inexperienced/unfamiliar halves, scoring points might be difficult. (*caveat – equivalent game last season when for 52 points!)
Add to that the rain forecast for Wollongong and the under looks like it is worth a play at 37.5.
Line: No bet
Total: Under 37.5 $1.82 (Beteasy)
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