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NRL musings – after Round 24

NRL musings – after Round 24

Sharks Goal Kicking

We touched on the Sharks goal kicking woes a little while back and were about to do so again after their shambles against the Raiders, but Foxsports beat us to it when they published a revised NRL competition table showing where teams would be sitting if results were based only on tries scored.  

Not surprisingly the Storm (38 points) was at the head of the table, while the Roosters (35 points) were sitting in second. Both teams are fortunate to have capable goal kickers in their ranks (Cameron Smith 82.6% this season, Latrell Mitchell 78.6%).

The surprise, however, was that the Sharks are sitting in third with 31 points if you use the tries scored approach.

The Sharks have an overall goal kicking success rate of 69.79%, whereas the large majority of the top eight teams are at least 76% (Wests Tigers are the exception at 69.7%).

Shaun Johnson hasn’t been too bad, kicking at 76.5% this season, but his supporting cast have been poor with Kyle Flanagan at 61.3% and Chad Townsend at 58.3%.

Perhaps Paul Gallen should have had more kicks given his unblemished record this season!  

One thing that we are mindful of though is that the Sharks are capable of doing some damage in the finals this year – if they can overcome the Tigers on Sunday.

(Foxsports story link below)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/teams/hey-sharks-if-only-where-every-nrl-team-would-sit-if-goal-kicks-were-given-the-flick/news-story/95bea3dd2c454a394fadcc25c11d9ae5

Betting Moves

It is a tricky betting week given team motivations and also the likelihood of players being rested.

To that end, there has been quite a bit of movement this week using the Sunday night prices (per the TAB) as a baseline.

Roosters: $1.70 -> $1.62

Eels: $1.70 -> $1.58

Melbourne: $1.15 (unchanged)

Raiders: $1.25 -> $1.20

Broncos: $1.65 -> $1.62

Dragons: $1.70 -> $1.62

Sharks: $1.90 -> $1.75

Panthers: $1.75 to $1.70

The Gold Coast Curse – update.

The Storm broke the curse last week when they defeated the Sea Eagles having played the Titans the week prior. That made it five teams who have managed a win having played the Titans the previous week.

The Knights are the final team to face the Gold Coast curse, playing the Panthers this week as a $2.20 (2.5 point) underdog.

Selections

Another mixed bag – pleasing result with the lines but ordinary with the game totals. Typically game totals are our strong suit, but as the results will attest, we’ve been pretty poor.

Game results: 3/5 – missed the Storm and Raiders (stayed out of the Cowboys v Bulldogs, Broncos v Eels and Knights v Titans)

With the start: 5/6 – missed Knights and stayed out of the Cowboys v Bulldogs (which we would have also missed) and the Knights v Titans (which we would have gone the right way in).

Game total: 2/6 – kicking ourselves at our inability to apply a correct weighting to motivational issues. We stayed out of the Cowboys v Bulldogs and Knights v Titans, but missed the Sea Eagles v Storm, Roosters v Panthers, Sharks v Raiders and Dragons v Tigers.   

Interest bets:  A poor effort again this week, only finding David Fifita anytime try scorer.  

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