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Schedule breakdown – Philadelphia Eagles

Schedule breakdown – Philadelphia Eagles

Following the recent announcement of the NFL draw, we’re working through each team in depth to break out the strength of schedule information further, as well as trying to identify any scheduling quirks. We’ve also included our own line projections for each game.

A quick note on the line projections – they are done as a point in time forecast based on known information at the moment.

We use the season win totals (Draftkings for now, but easy to change) as a proxy for power ratings and then converting the differential into a line based on the location of the match. They will change slightly as the season win totals change.

For the moment at least, these are raw projections except where games are played at neutral venues.

In terms of the Eagles here are a few things we’ve noted:

  1. Their overall strength of schedule is considered to be the 6th easiest – 17th when for home games and 7th when playing away.
  2. Looking at the strength of schedule from a timing viewpoint – they have a relatively easy start but they have a stretch of three consecutive away games where they meet the Jets, Vikings and Bills. Games 5-8 and 9-12 are their toughest blocks, but they have a nice finish with the Giants (twice), Redskins and Cowboys to round out the season.
  3. Based on our projections we have them as favorite in 11 games (7 home, 4 away), a small underdog in 4 games (Falcons – away, Packers – away, Vikings – away and Cowboys – away). They are also ‘pick-em’ against the Patriots at home.
  4. In a general sense, their schedule is quite different to the remainder of teams in that they have three consecutive away games (weeks 6-8) and later in the season they have three consecutive home games (weeks 9-11, which straddles their bye).
  5. Breaking down their draw – they have four games against opponents with season win totals of 6 or less, three games against opponents between 6.01 to 7, 6 games against opponents with win totals of 8.01 to 9 games and just two games against opponents with win totals above 9 games (Bears and Patriots).

Here is a graphic we’ve put together breaking down their draw in greater detail (and as you might have guessed – we’re not graphic designers!)

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