SavvyPlays

On-field plus/minus for all 17 NRL clubs: the players who move the scoreboard most when they're on the park, and the ones quietly dragging it backwards.

Four straight to the Sharks, the round's widest PCS gap (+49.1) and Cronulla at 94% Best 17. Brookvale is a 63% Manly fortress, but the class gap is decisive. Strong tip: Sharks by 4.

St Kilda 5–0 in H2H. North on 3 straight losses. Squiggle 29/30 Saints. Strong tip: St Kilda by 12.

A coin-flip model line (Titans -0.9) between two strugglers. The Dragons' 64% Jubilee record, a 3-2 recent H2H and a +3.2 CI/DS edge tip a thin lean home. Lean tip: Dragons.

Brisbane 11–6 at the Gabba. Port Adelaide 5–12, 2–6 away. Unanimous 74.8%. Strong tip: Brisbane by 25.

Bulldogs 9–8. Richmond 2–15, worst in AFL. Unanimous 81.3%. Strong tip: Bulldogs by 30.

The Broncos own the H2H (4-1) and a 67% record in Townsville, but the model likes the Cowboys by 5.5 with a +11.7 PCS edge. CI/DS is level. Lean tip: Cowboys by 5.