SavvyPlays

Four straight to the Sharks, the round's widest PCS gap (+49.1) and Cronulla at 94% Best 17. Brookvale is a 63% Manly fortress, but the class gap is decisive. Strong tip: Sharks by 4.

St Kilda 5–0 in H2H. North on 3 straight losses. Squiggle 29/30 Saints. Strong tip: St Kilda by 12.

A coin-flip model line (Titans -0.9) between two strugglers. The Dragons' 64% Jubilee record, a 3-2 recent H2H and a +3.2 CI/DS edge tip a thin lean home. Lean tip: Dragons.

Brisbane 11–6 at the Gabba. Port Adelaide 5–12, 2–6 away. Unanimous 74.8%. Strong tip: Brisbane by 25.

Bulldogs 9–8. Richmond 2–15, worst in AFL. Unanimous 81.3%. Strong tip: Bulldogs by 30.

The Broncos own the H2H (4-1) and a 67% record in Townsville, but the model likes the Cowboys by 5.5 with a +11.7 PCS edge. CI/DS is level. Lean tip: Cowboys by 5.

Canterbury own a three-game head-to-head streak, but the Warriors lead on ELO (+133), CI/DS (+3.5) and bench PCS (42.6 v 10.7). The 42% Accor record is the risk. Lean tip: Warriors by 9.

Sydney Derby. GWS 6–3 at home. Sydney 14–4, H2H 4–1. Squiggle 18–9. Lean tip: Sydney by 6.

Hawthorn 13–4, 8–1 at home. Essendon 4–14, 0–9 away. Unanimous. Strong tip: Hawthorn by 25.

Canberra are middling, but the Tigers have named a bottom-tier sheet at -10.7 squad ±/G. Edge Engine +3 Lean Home, model margin +15.4. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.