SavvyPlays

Four of the last five and a 57% Suncorp record say Dolphins — but the 0-66 hangover and the worst Consistency Index in the NRL say tread carefully. Lean tip: Dolphins by 6.

The edge model's strongest away signal of the round: Manly wins 62% at Cbus, the Titans just 43% at home. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 14.

Two struggling sides, but the Tigers' 37% record at Accor and Koroisau's demotion to the reserves tip it. Lean tip: Bulldogs by 6.

Five Warriors return at the Mt Smart fortress against a 2-14 Dragons side with the worst squad numbers in the competition. Strong tip: Warriors by 20.

Five straight to Canberra in the fixture, but the model calls it a coin flip and the squad numbers favour Souths. Lean tip: Raiders by 2.

The Storm arrive without Munster and Hughes; the Roosters without Tedesco. The disruption ledger favours the home side. Lean tip: Roosters by 6.

Fresh off a 66-0 statement, the Sharks return to their 83% fortress against a Knights side losing two forwards. Strong tip: Sharks by 12.

Royal Birkdale Golf Club

The Broncos get everyone back and it still isn't enough on the numbers — PCS gap +31.3, ELO gap 306, H2H 4-1. Strong tip: Panthers by 20.