SavvyPlays

GWS 4–1 at home, 1–5 away. St Kilda own the R2 result. H2H favours the Giants 4–2 but venue favours the Saints. Lean tip: St Kilda by 6.

Tigers 82% best-17 vs Titans 65%. Leichhardt fortress 62%. ELO gap 77 points. Predict +8.4 Tigers. Lean Wests Tigers.

Richmond 2–10. Brisbane the defending premiers. Four straight H2H wins to the Lions including 163–44 in 2024. 89.3% model confidence. Strong tip: Brisbane by 40.

Essendon’s 8-game losing streak meets their 3–2 H2H dominance. The form says Melbourne by 30. The history says be careful. Strong tip: Melbourne by 25.

Eels ±/G -9.5, all 13 starters negative. Raiders H2H 4-1 streak. Predict -5.0 Raiders. Lean Raiders despite poor CommBank record (33%).

The best team in the AFL travels to Adelaide. Sydney are 10–2, 7–0 at home, and scoring at will. Port are 4–8 and fading. Strong tip: Sydney by 20.

Both teams Origin-depleted. Warriors CI/DS edge +3.6. Sharks 64% at Go Media. Market shorter than model at $1.37. Lean Warriors.

Home team, away ground. North Melbourne are listed as home but play at Optus Stadium — where West Coast beat them by 17 ten weeks ago. Lean tip: North Melbourne by 8.

JMK (+20.5) and Bostock (+22.0) lead a quality Dolphins 13. Roosters backline posts three negative starters and two unknowns. Strong tip: Dolphins by 12.