SavvyPlays

A battle between two struggling sides. The signal here is disruption — the Eels are still missing both halves, their best prop, and a starting centre. CI/DS +3.7 is the clearest indicator in this match.

The biggest predicted margin of the round. Sharks 80% at Shark Park, H2H 4-1, facing a Dragons side that is 1-12 with the worst ±/G in the competition.

The most lopsided match of the round. Panthers are 12-1, top of the ladder, return four Origin stars, and have a squad ±/G of +12.8 — the best in the NRL by a wide margin.

The Queensland derby — and a mismatch. Broncos have won 3 straight against the Titans, who are 2-9 and win just 32% at Suncorp.

A genuine top-eight clash in Townsville — and we're tipping the away team. Dolphins are 100% at QCB Stadium (3-0, avg +22), near full strength, and have the Cowboys on short rest without Dearden.

A Lean tip against the grain. The model likes the Roosters — but H2H 4-1, a 38% Roosters record at GIO, and a hangover from last week's 4-18 loss in Melbourne all point one way.

AAMI Park — the most dominant home fortress in the NRL. The Knights have won just 2 of 16 visits. Every structural factor points Melbourne's way.