Richmond v Brisbane Lions

This is the most one-sided match of Round 14 by every measure. Richmond are 2–10 — the second-worst record in the competition. Their only wins came against West Coast (by 11, away) and Essendon (by 18, home) — the two weakest teams in the league. Against everyone else, they’ve been demolished.

Brisbane are the defending premiers at 7–5. They’ve had some inconsistent patches — losses to GWS by 78 (R11), Fremantle by 25 (R12), and Geelong by 41 (R10) — but they beat Gold Coast by 31 last start and have the quality to dominate weak opponents.

The H2H is completely one-sided. Brisbane have won the last four meetings: by 28 (2025), 119 (2024), 81 (2023), and 2 (2022). Richmond haven’t beaten Brisbane since Round 20, 2022.

At 89.3% confidence with a +45 average predicted margin, the Squiggle consensus is the strongest of the round. We’re tipping 40 rather than 45 to account for the neutral venue in Hobart, which slightly reduces Brisbane’s advantage.

Richmond’s 2026 has been catastrophic. Ten losses from twelve games, many by enormous margins: Gold Coast by 68 (R2), Fremantle by 60 (R3), North Melbourne by 75 (R6), Melbourne by 54 (R7), Adelaide by 37 (R9), and Sydney by 114 (R12). The Sydney result — 170–56 — is one of the worst losses in modern AFL history.

Their two wins tell the story: beating West Coast by 11 (R8) and Essendon by 18 (R11). Both opponents are in the bottom four. Richmond can only compete against the weakest sides in the competition.

Brisbane’s form has been up and down. They hammered Gold Coast by 31 last start (R13) and have produced some dominant wins — Collingwood by 54 (R4), Adelaide by 52 (R7), Essendon by 64 (R8). But they’ve also been exposed: GWS by 78 (R11), Geelong by 41 (R10). The Lions are capable of poor performances but Richmond are unlikely to trigger one.

Bellerive Oval in Hobart is a neutral venue for both teams. Neither side has a home-ground advantage, which slightly benefits Richmond — Brisbane don’t get their Gabba fortress. But the quality gap is so wide that venue is largely irrelevant.

Brisbane have won the last four meetings and five of the last six. The margins in recent years have been staggering: 119 points (2024), 81 points (2023), 28 points (2025). Even the closest recent result was a 2-point Brisbane win in 2022. Richmond haven’t beaten Brisbane since that same year.

The only question is the margin. Brisbane will win. The question is whether it’s a 20-point win or a 60-point win. Richmond’s recent losses suggest the latter is entirely possible — they’ve conceded 100+ points in seven of twelve games this season.

The neutral venue. Bellerive Oval removes Brisbane’s Gabba advantage but also means Richmond don’t benefit from a home crowd. In Hobart, the crowd is likely to be neutral or even pro-Brisbane. The venue is a minor factor in what is otherwise a massive quality mismatch.

Brisbane’s inconsistency is the only caveat. The Lions lost to GWS by 78 and Fremantle by 25 in their last three games. They’re capable of flat performances. But even a below-par Brisbane should be too strong for a 2–10 Richmond side.

Everything points the same way: Brisbane’s superior season record (7–5 vs 2–10), total H2H domination (4 straight, avg margin 58), and the highest model confidence of any match this round (89.3%). Richmond simply don’t have the talent to compete.

We’ve set the margin at 40 rather than the model’s 45 to account for the neutral Hobart venue and Brisbane’s occasional flat performances. But this could easily be 50+.