Collingwood v Port Adelaide

The H2H record makes this a Strong tip despite both teams having poor seasons. Collingwood have beaten Port Adelaide in the last five meetings: by 91 (2025 R1), 42 (2024 R6), 71 (2023 R2), 2 (2023 R19), and 6 (2022 R20). That’s a combined winning margin of 212 points across five games. Port simply cannot beat Collingwood.

Both teams are struggling in 2026 — Collingwood at 4–8 and Port at 4–9. But the MCG gives Collingwood a venue advantage, and Port’s away record (2–4) confirms they struggle on the road.

The Squiggle consensus is unanimous: 27 of 27 models tip Collingwood at 70.9% confidence with an average margin of +19.0. We’re rounding up to +20 given the extreme H2H domination.

Total H2H domination. Five straight wins with an average margin of 42 points. This is one of the most one-sided recent matchups in the AFL. Port Adelaide haven’t beaten Collingwood since 2022 R6.

Two struggling teams. At 4–8 and 4–9, neither side is having a good season. But Collingwood’s recent form is slightly better — they beat West Coast by 10 (R11) and lost to Melbourne by 8 (R13) in a competitive performance. Port lost to Carlton by 34 at home (R11) and Sydney by 3 at home (R14).

Port’s psychological block. After five consecutive losses to Collingwood — including 91-point and 71-point hidings — the mental barrier is real. Port players know their recent history against this opponent. That weighs on performance.