GWS v Carlton

GWS at Sydney Showground are a completely different team to GWS on the road. At home: 4–1, with wins over Richmond (+56), North Melbourne (+7), Essendon (+14), and Brisbane (+78). Away: 1–6. The venue split is the most extreme in the AFL.

Carlton are on a 3-game winning streak — Port Adelaide (+34), Geelong (+4), and Essendon (+5). But all three wins were against struggling opponents and two were at home. Their away record of 2–4 doesn’t inspire confidence for a trip to Sydney.

The Squiggle consensus is unanimous: 27 of 27 models tip GWS at 63.2% confidence with an average margin of +11.6. We’re going higher at +15 because GWS’s home form has consistently produced larger margins than the models predict.

The H2H favours GWS 3–2 in the last five meetings, including wins by 28 (2025) and 12 (2024).

GWS’s home-away split remains the story. At 4–1 at home and 1–6 away, these are functionally two different teams. Their R14 loss to St Kilda (by 8, away) reinforced the pattern. Tonight they’re back at their fortress.

Carlton’s winning streak is real but soft. Port Adelaide (4–9), Geelong (away, by 4), and Essendon (0–9 in their losing streak at the time). None of those opponents are in the top eight. GWS at home is a significant step up.

The R14 bounce. GWS lost to St Kilda by 8 away last round. Teams coming off an away loss tend to lift at home — especially teams with GWS’s dramatic home-away split.