Richmond v North Melbourne

Richmond’s 2–11 season continues to be the worst in the competition. Their only wins came against the two weakest teams (West Coast by 11, Essendon by 18). They’re 1–5 at home and lost to Brisbane by 35 in their last home game (R14).

North Melbourne are 6–7 — an inconsistent side capable of extreme results in both directions (155–31 win over North Melbourne... wait, that was Fremantle beating them). They beat West Coast by 1 in R14 and Gold Coast by 6 in R11. They’re not great, but they’re significantly better than Richmond.

The H2H is completely one-sided: North Melbourne have won the last four meetings by 75 (R6 2026), 48 (2025 R23), 4 (2025 R10), and 13 (2024 R21). Richmond haven’t beaten North Melbourne since 2023.

All 27 Squiggle models tip North Melbourne at 70.2% confidence with an average margin of +18.5. We’re going to +25 based on R14 learnings about backing margins against bottom-two teams.

The R6 demolition. North Melbourne beat Richmond 130–55 earlier this season — a 75-point win. That result tells you everything about the quality gap. Richmond have gotten worse since then (1–6 in the six games after R6).

North Melbourne’s rollercoaster. The Roos were smashed 155–31 by Fremantle in R13 but bounced back to beat West Coast by 1 in R14. They’re unpredictable, but even their bad version should be too strong for a 2–11 Richmond side.

Richmond’s scoring crisis. The Tigers have scored fewer than 75 points in 8 of 13 games. They simply don’t have the attacking firepower to compete with most sides.