Round 16 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Collingwood v Richmond

Richmond 2–12, worst in the AFL. Collingwood 4–1 in H2H. 87.4% confidence. Strong tip: Collingwood by 35.

SavvyPlays · 25 June 2026 · MCG, Melbourne · Saturday 27 June · 4:15PM AEST

Richmond are 2–12 — the worst record in the AFL. Collingwood have won four of the last five H2H meetings. The Squiggle consensus is unanimous at 87.4% confidence with a +39.8 average margin. Richmond have lost their last three by 114, 35, and 25 points.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Collingwood by 35

Richmond’s 2–12 season continues to produce historically bad results. Their last three games: lost to Sydney by 114 (R12), Brisbane by 35 (R14), and North Melbourne by 25 (R15). They’re 1–6 both at home and away.

Collingwood are having a poor season at 5–8, but they beat Port Adelaide by 27 at home last round (R15). The H2H is one-sided: Collingwood 4–1 in the last five, including wins by 36 (2025), 26 (2024), and 14 (2023).

Squiggle consensus is unanimous: 29/29 Collingwood at 87.4% confidence — the highest of the round — with a +39.8 average margin. We’re tipping 35, applying the R14 lesson of backing blowouts against bottom-two teams.

5–8

Collingwood Season

2–12

Richmond Season

Pies 4–1

H2H Last 5

L114, L35, L25

Richmond Last 3

29/29 Pies

Squiggle

87.4%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables. Model consensus from Squiggle API. All figures verified as of 25 June 2026.