North Melbourne v Essendon
Essendon 1–13, 0–7 away. North Melbourne 5–3 at home. R3 result: North by 12. Strong tip: North Melbourne by 20.
SavvyPlays · 25 June 2026 · Marvel Stadium · Sunday 28 June · 3:15PM AEST
Essendon are 1–13 — one win all season, back in Round 5. They’ve lost 9 straight and are 0–7 away from home. North Melbourne are 7–7 with a 5–3 home record and already beat Essendon by 12 in R3 this season. All 29 models agree.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01North Melbourne by 20
Essendon’s 1–13 season is the worst in the AFL alongside Richmond’s 2–12. Their sole win came in Round 5 (Melbourne by 45) and they’ve lost nine straight since. They’re 0–7 away from home with an average losing margin on the road of over 30 points.
North Melbourne are 7–7 and 5–3 at home. They already beat Essendon by 12 at this venue in R3 this season. Their recent form includes a 25-point win over Richmond (R15, away) and a 1-point win over West Coast (R14, home). They’re not spectacular, but they’re more than enough for a 1–13 opponent.
Unanimous Squiggle consensus: 29/29 North Melbourne at 66.6% confidence with a +14.6 average margin. We’re going to +20 based on Essendon’s continued deterioration and the R3 precedent.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from AFL Tables. Model consensus from Squiggle API. All figures verified as of 25 June 2026.
SavvyPlays — AFL Analytics · © 2026