Round 16 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Port Adelaide v Adelaide

The Showdown. Adelaide 9–5, 3 straight wins. Port 4–10. Adelaide 4–1 in last 5 H2H. Strong tip: Adelaide by 15.

SavvyPlays · 25 June 2026 · Adelaide Oval · Saturday 27 June · 7:35PM AEST

The Showdown. Adelaide are 9–5 and have won three straight including a 57-point demolition of the Bulldogs (R14) and a 17-point win over Melbourne (R15). Port Adelaide are 4–10 and 2–5 at Adelaide Oval. Adelaide have won four of the last five Showdowns. This is their city right now.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Adelaide by 15

Adelaide are the form team of the competition over the last three rounds: beat Geelong by 1 (R13), demolished the Bulldogs by 57 (R14), and beat Melbourne by 17 (R15). At 9–5 with a 6–2 home record, the Crows are a genuine top-four contender.

Port Adelaide are 4–10 and in freefall. They’re 2–5 at Adelaide Oval this season — losing at home more often than not. Their last three: beat West Coast by 6 (R13, away), lost to Sydney by 3 (R14, home), lost to Collingwood by 27 (R15, away).

The H2H is emphatic: Adelaide have won four of the last five Showdowns, including by 1 (R8 2026), 98 (2025 R20), 5 (2025 R9), and 30 (2024 R8). Port’s only H2H win in that stretch was by 22 in 2024 R23.

28 of 29 Squiggle models tip Adelaide at 66.2% confidence with a +14.8 average margin. We’re going to +15. The Showdown factor and Adelaide’s current surge make this a Strong tip.

9–5

Adelaide Season

4–10

Port Season

3–3

Adelaide Away

2–5

Port Home

Adelaide 4–1

H2H Last 5

28/29 Adelaide

Squiggle

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. All figures verified as of 25 June 2026.