Round 17 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Essendon v St Kilda

Essendon 2–14 but H2H 4–1 and just broke their losing streak. St Kilda 6–7 off a bye. Lean tip: St Kilda by 5.

SavvyPlays · 2 July 2026 · Marvel Stadium · Sunday 5 July · 3:15PM AEST

Essendon broke their 9-game losing streak with a shock win over North Melbourne in R16. The H2H heavily favours Essendon 4–1 in the last five. But the Bombers are still 2–14 and the models lean St Kilda 21–6 at 55.3%. This is a genuine coin flip.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01St Kilda by 5

The H2H is the wrinkle. Essendon have won four of the last five meetings against St Kilda, including by 62 (2026 R1), 24 (2025), and 26 (2024). And they just broke their 9-game streak by beating North Melbourne by 9 in R16. Momentum plus matchup advantage is dangerous.

But Essendon are still 2–14 and 2–6 at home. St Kilda at 6–7 had a bye in R16 and should be fresh. The models lean St Kilda 21–6 but at only 55.3% confidence — the lowest of any R17 match.

We lean St Kilda on overall quality, but flag this as the upset watch of the round. Essendon’s H2H dominance (4–1) and newfound confidence from the R16 win make this genuinely unpredictable.

2–14

Essendon Season

6–7

St Kilda Season

Essendon 4–1

H2H Last 5

W +9 v North

Essendon R16

21/27 Saints

Squiggle

55.3%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from afl.com.au/zerohanger.com. All figures verified as of 2 July 2026.