Round 18 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Brisbane Lions v Essendon

Brisbane 9–6, Gabba advantage. Essendon 3–14, 0–8 away. H2H Brisbane 4–1. Strong tip: Brisbane by 25.

SavvyPlays · 9 July 2026 · Gabba, Brisbane · Sunday 12 July · 4:40PM AEST

Essendon have won two of their last three but remain 3–14 and 0–8 away. Brisbane are 9–6 at the Gabba. The H2H overwhelmingly favours Brisbane 4–1. All 27 models tip Brisbane at 75.1% confidence. Essendon’s mini-revival won’t extend to the Gabba.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Brisbane Lions by 25

Essendon’s two wins from their last three (North Melbourne +9, St Kilda +1) have been a positive sign, but both came at home. They’re 0–8 away — the worst travelling record in the AFL. The Gabba against the defending premiers is a completely different challenge.

Brisbane at 9–6 have won three of their last four. Their Gabba record (4–2) isn’t a fortress, but Essendon’s complete inability to win on the road makes this a comfortable home win.

The H2H is one-sided: Brisbane 4–1 in the last five, including by 64 (R8 2026). Unanimous consensus: 27/27 Brisbane at 75.1% with +24.3 margin. We’re at +25.

9–6

Brisbane Season

3–14

Essendon Season

0–8

Essendon Away

Brisbane 4–1

H2H Last 5

27/27 Brisbane

Squiggle

75.1%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from zerohanger.com. All figures verified as of 9 July 2026.