Round 18 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Collingwood v North Melbourne

Collingwood 4–1 in H2H but 6–9 overall. North 8–8. Squiggle 18–9. Lean tip: Collingwood by 4.

SavvyPlays · 9 July 2026 · Marvel Stadium · Friday 10 July · 7:40PM AEST

Collingwood own this matchup 4–1 in the last five H2H, but North Melbourne have the better season record (8–8 vs 6–9). The Squiggle consensus is split 18–9 for Collingwood at 53.8%. A genuine coin flip tipped by the H2H.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Collingwood by 4

The H2H record is the tiebreaker in this even contest. Collingwood have won four of the last five meetings against North Melbourne, including by 10 (R11 2026), 39 (2025), and 44 (2024). Even in a poor season (6–9), the Pies lift for this matchup.

North Melbourne at 8–8 are the better team on paper but have been inconsistent — beaten by Essendon last round after being tipped by 20+. Their away record (3–5) is a concern.

The models lean Collingwood 18–9 at just 53.8% with a +3.7 margin. We’re at +4. This is as tight as it gets — pure Lean territory.

6–9

Collingwood Season

8–8

North Season

Pies 4–1

H2H Last 5

3–5

North Away

18/27 Pies

Squiggle

53.8%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from zerohanger.com. All figures verified as of 9 July 2026.