Round 18 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Melbourne v Richmond

Melbourne 9–6, 6–1 at MCG. Richmond 2–14. 87.9% confidence, +43.3 margin. Strong tip: Melbourne by 40.

SavvyPlays · 9 July 2026 · MCG, Melbourne · Sunday 12 July · 3:15PM AEST

The highest confidence match of Round 18. Melbourne are 9–6 and 6–1 at the MCG. Richmond are 2–14 and 1–7 away. Squiggle consensus is unanimous at 87.9% confidence with a +43.3 margin — the largest of any match this round.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Melbourne by 40

Richmond’s 2–14 season is the worst in the AFL. They’re 1–7 away and have been demolished repeatedly: Sydney by 114, North Melbourne by 75, Gold Coast by 68, Fremantle by 60. Their average losing margin is over 35 points.

Melbourne at 9–6 are a strong side and 6–1 at the MCG. They beat Essendon by 45 (R14) and Hawthorn by 5 (R17). Against Richmond at home, anything less than a comfortable win would be a shock.

The models are emphatic: 27/27 Melbourne at 87.9% with +43.3 margin. We’re at +40, applying the R14 lesson of backing blowouts against bottom-two teams.

9–6

Melbourne Season

2–14

Richmond Season

6–1

Melbourne Home

1–7

Richmond Away

27/27 Melbourne

Squiggle

87.9%

Confidence

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus from Squiggle API. Kickoff times verified from zerohanger.com. All figures verified as of 9 July 2026.