KLM Open
The International · June 4–7, 2026
The DP World Tour heads to The International in the Netherlands for the KLM Open — a 156-player field with no course profile in our database. The model runs equal component weights and the Euro edge cap applies. Kevin Na tops the value board for the second consecutive week, this time as ✅ Value after last week's 🔥 Best Bet disappointment at T40 in Austria. The caution zone hits a season high of 20 suppressed players.
No Course Profile — Equal Weights
The International carries no scoring-variance profile in our database — the model runs equal component weights with the DP World Tour edge cap applied (5.0pp max, 0.5pp min). 150 of 156 players carry history. With no course profile, our outright numbers are conservative by design — the edges that survive are skill-driven. The caution zone hit a season high of 20 suppressed players this week, suggesting systematic blind spots in Euro tour skill estimation.
The Headline Value Pick
Kevin Na — $351
✅ Value (0.5u) · Our win%: 2.1% · Edge: +1.8pp · T10 edge: +10.5pp · AdjSG +0.57 (#7)
Na finished T40 in Austria last week as our Best Bet — disappointing, but the model still sees significant edge. Downgraded from 🔥 Best Bet to ✅ Value this week (1.8pp vs last week's 2.5pp), but still the largest edge on any Euro card this season. His ARG (+0.35) and APP (+0.28) profile suits European courses. The market continues to undervalue a LIV Golf veteran with proven PGA Tour pedigree in weaker Euro fields.
The Value Board — The Full 15
Euro edge cap applied. No course profile — equal weights. Na keeps appearing with the biggest edge on the Euro card. Huizing at $1,351 is the longshot value play — a Dutch player at home whose +1.2pp win edge and +7.9pp T10 edge are generated purely from skill, not course fit. Buchanan at $1,001 carries a +6.1pp T10 edge. Ritchie's edge has narrowed to +0.6pp this week (down from +1.0–1.1pp in recent weeks) — the market is starting to price him more efficiently. His T10 model shows no meaningful edge this week, published as null on the card.
Top H2H Matchup Plays
Stone over Dean — +25% EV. Our model: Stone 60.5%, offered 2.07 (48.3% implied). EV = 0.605 × 2.07 − 1 = +25%. Olesen over Wiesberger — +21% EV. Our model: Olesen 61.1%, offered 1.98 (50.5% implied). Lagergren over Kobori — +21% EV. Our model: Lagergren 55.5%, offered 2.18 (45.9% implied).
First Round Leader
Ritchie leads FRL probability at 1.9% (fair $52.6) — AM wave. Na 1.8% (fair $55.6) — PM wave. Migliozzi 1.6% (fair $63.3) — AM. Winther 1.6% (fair $63.7) — PM. Clements 1.6% (fair $64.1) — PM.
Make / Miss Cut Fades
Feuerstein (79.7% miss, fair $4.93 vs book $4.10) — FADE. Logan (79.6% miss, fair $4.89 vs book $4.45) — FADE. Johnston (76.1% miss, fair $4.18 vs book $3.55) — FADE. Gavins is the value side: 72.2% miss probability but the book prices him at $6.50 against our fair $3.60 — the market is substantially overestimating his cut chances. Back him to make the cut.
Model Caution Zone — Season High
20 Suppressed Players — Season High
The largest caution zone of the season — 20 players where independent benchmarks are 2x+ our model and the market agrees. Chacarra (6.9x), Wiesberger (4.7x), Ayora (3.7x), Kimsey (3.0x), Hillier (3.0x) top the list. This many suppressed players suggests the model may have systematic blind spots in the Euro tour skill estimation this week. Defer to market consensus on these players.
Where We Could Be Wrong
We publish the honest version. Our DP World Tour skill estimates are less precise than our PGA numbers — the rounds sample is thinner and field turnover higher — so a Euro-tour edge cap is applied. With no KLM course profile, equal component weights make our outright numbers conservative by design. The 20-player caution zone is an unusually large signal this week: if the model is systematically suppressing too many players, the edges on the value list may be tighter than published. Trust the mid-tier T10 plays and H2H matchups over the outrights.
Value Picks
| Player | Our Win% | Market $ | Edge | T10 Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Na | 2.1% | 351.00 | +1.80pp | +10.50pp |
| Jens Dantorp | 1.6% | 351.00 | +1.30pp | +6.90pp |
| Jeff Winther | 1.5% | 290.00 | +1.20pp | +7.20pp |
| Daan Huizing | 1.3% | 1351.00 | +1.20pp | +7.90pp |
| Todd Clements | 1.8% | 146.00 | +1.10pp | +3.50pp |
| Marcus Helligkilde | 1.3% | 381.00 | +1.00pp | +5.00pp |
| Jack Buchanan | 1.1% | 1001.00 | +1.00pp | +6.10pp |
| Joel Girrbach | 1.5% | 173.00 | +0.90pp | +3.60pp |
| Ashun Wu | 1.2% | 301.00 | +0.90pp | +4.40pp |
| Guido Migliozzi | 1.7% | 109.00 | +0.80pp | +3.00pp |
| Niklas Norgaard | 1.2% | 256.00 | +0.80pp | +6.10pp |
| Kristoffer Broberg | 0.9% | 676.00 | +0.80pp | +7.50pp |
| Scott Jamieson | 1.1% | 326.00 | +0.80pp | +6.90pp |
| Sadom Kaewkanjana | 1.0% | 301.00 | +0.70pp | +3.70pp |
| JC Ritchie | 2.0% | 72.00 | +0.60pp | — |
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 03 June
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice