John Deere Classic
TPC Deere Run · July 2–5, 2026
TPC Deere Run is a birdie-fest with a putting-dominant profile — 38% putting, 35% approach, 14% off-the-tee across 2,246 historical rounds. Winning scores routinely reach -20 or better. Without the marquee names in the field, this is the model's sweet spot: a weaker field on a course we know deeply, where mid-tier value consistently outperforms name recognition.
TPC Deere Run
D.A. Weibring design, par 71, 7,268 yards. Generous fairways, receptive greens, and scoring opportunities on the par 5s. 2,246 historical rounds in our database with 65 players carrying 8+ rounds of course history — one of our deepest samples of the season. Putting-dominant at 38%. Brown's balanced profile (+0.43 APP, +0.30 PUTT) makes him the top skill estimate in a field short on stars.
Season Context
Four Outright Winners This Season
Snedeker $351 · Rai $281 · Sterne $501 · Clark $60
Two major champions from the value list. Twelve events with T10 hits out of thirteen reviewed. Clark won the U.S. Open at Shinnecock and followed with T5 at the Travelers last week — the model is riding a hot streak into a soft field on a course we know well.
The Headline Value Pick
Carson Young — $176
Our win%: 2.3% · Edge: +1.7pp · T10 edge: +8.4pp
Young leads the value board with the strongest edge on the card. The market has him at $176 as a body in the field; our model has him at more than double that implied chance, with a +8.4pp top-10 edge that is the second-highest number on the whole list. On a putting-dominant course with a deep 2,246-round sample, this is exactly the mid-tier profile the model is paid to find.
The Value Board — The Full 15
Weaker field without the marquee names — this is where the model excels at finding overlooked mid-tier players. Young at +1.7pp is the strongest edge on the card. Brown tops the skill rankings but is shorter-priced at $67. Cole is a win-market play, not a top-10 play: his top-10 edge is -1.3pp — the market prices him tighter for the top ten than the model likes, but the +0.6pp win edge at $36 is real. 24 consensus-adjusted players in the field, the largest zone we have flagged this season.
Head-to-Head Matchup Value
Ghim over Hisatsune — +38% EV, the top matchup edge on the card. Our model: Ghim 70.9%, offered 1.94 (51.5% implied). EV = 0.709 × 1.94 − 1 = +38%. Hoey over Novak — +35% EV. Our model: Hoey 59.8%, offered 2.25 (44.4% implied). EV = 0.598 × 2.25 − 1 = +35%. Brown over Potgieter — +32% EV. Our model: Brown 69.4%, offered 1.90 (52.6% implied). EV = 0.694 × 1.90 − 1 = +32%.
First Round Leader
Gotterup leads FRL probability at 2.8% (fair $36.1) — PM wave, 12:45. Mitchell 2.7% (fair $37.3) — PM, 12:34. Cole 2.5% (fair $40.0) — AM, 07:13. Poston 2.2% (fair $45.9) — AM, 07:13.
Make / Miss Cut Fades
Campos (81.0% miss, fair $5.27 vs book $3.85) — FADE. Highsmith (79.5% miss, fair $4.87 vs book $2.85) — FADE. Campbell (77.3% miss, fair $4.41 vs book $2.10) — FADE.
Where We Could Be Wrong
Deep course profile (2,246 rounds), 65 players with 8+ rounds of history, and a weaker field make this one of our highest-conviction cards of the season. The main caveat: 24 players carry consensus signal that significantly exceeds our model — the largest adjustment zone we have flagged this year. That volume tells you the consensus market disagrees with us on a lot of names. We trust the model on the value board because the course sample is deep; treat the tightly-priced favourites with respect.
Value Picks
| Player | Our Win% | Market $ | Edge | T10 Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young, Carson | 2.3% | 176.00 | +1.70pp | +8.40pp |
| Grillo, Emiliano | 2.2% | 85.00 | +1.00pp | +6.70pp |
| Hoey, Rico | 2.1% | 84.00 | +0.90pp | +5.20pp |
| Higgo, Garrick | 1.6% | 151.00 | +0.90pp | +5.50pp |
| Brown, Blades | 2.3% | 67.00 | +0.80pp | +7.90pp |
| Nakajima, Keita | 1.4% | 151.00 | +0.70pp | +3.40pp |
| Ewart, A.J. | 1.3% | 159.00 | +0.70pp | +6.00pp |
| Champ, Cameron | 0.9% | 351.00 | +0.60pp | +5.20pp |
| Roy, Kevin | 1.0% | 226.00 | +0.60pp | +4.10pp |
| Cole, Eric | 3.3% | 36.00 | +0.60pp | -1.30pp |
| Laird, Martin | 0.7% | 1001.00 | +0.60pp | +5.20pp |
| Lebioda, Hank | 0.8% | 411.00 | +0.60pp | +4.00pp |
| List, Luke | 0.7% | 1001.00 | +0.60pp | +4.10pp |
| Peterson, Paul | 0.7% | 751.00 | +0.50pp | +4.90pp |
| Garnett, Brice | 0.9% | 301.00 | +0.50pp | +3.50pp |
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 01 July
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice