PGA Championship
Aronimink Golf Club · May 14–17, 2026
Aronimink Golf Club hosts the PGA Championship for only the second time since 1962 — a Donald Ross design returning to the major rotation after a Gil Hanse restoration. The test isn't length. With wide fairways and par 70 over 7,400 yards, players will reach for driver and trust they can recover. Our model reads a setup that punishes the approach and rewards short-game touch — which is why Tyrrell Hatton (+0.41 SG:APP, +0.31 SG:ARG) leads our card with the biggest win-edge in the field.
Aronimink Golf Club
Not long. Not tight. But absolutely treacherous around the greens. Aronimink's wide fairways mean players will bomb it off the tee. The challenge is what happens after: heavily contoured, severely sloped Ross greens with deep flashed bunkers and collection areas that punish anything slightly off-target.
Weather
Season Context
Last week: Snedeker won at $351 (value pick), Brown T9, Ritchie T3. The model's sweet spot is full-field events in the $50–$350 price range — players the market barely notices but our simulation identifies as having genuine T10 upside. This week is a 156-player major championship — our Phase 2 model is fully calibrated for this format. No limited-field caveats. No course profile for Aronimink (first major hosting) — equal component weights applied.
Fresh Winners in the Field
Two recent champions appear as value picks this week: Reitan, Kristoffer ($141, +0.9pp) — Won Truist Championship last week at Quail Hollow (-15). AdjSG +1.29 powered by elite putting (+2.7 SG:PUTT in R1, +3.1 in R3). At $141 the market hasn't fully priced in his form spike. Snedeker, Brandt ($1,101, +0.9pp, +9.1pp T10) — Won Myrtle Beach Classic at $351 last week. Our model flagged him as value pre-tournament and he delivered. At $1,101 the market sees a 51-year-old past his prime; we see +0.57 AdjSG with elite scrambling and a hot putter. The +9.1pp T10 edge is the second-largest on this card.
Fades
McIlroy, Rory — Market ~$10.38 Our model has him at 3.8% (fair $26.30) vs market 9.6%. A -5.9pp gap — the second-largest fade on the card. Two-time defending Masters champion, but his form since Augusta has been mediocre: T19 at Truist, didn't play Cadillac. His 3.02 std is the second-highest among the top 10. At $10.38 you're paying for the brand and the green jacket momentum, not the current form. Season caveat: McIlroy won the Masters as our biggest fade — the model may still be underpricing elite momentum at majors. Koepka, Brooks — Market ~$55 Market 1.8% vs our 0.9%. Major championship specialist reputation but AdjSG of +0.97 ranks only 17th in the field. Negative putting (-0.09 SG:PUTT) is a persistent liability. At $55 you're paying for four major titles and the 'Koepka at majors' narrative, not for a player who currently ranks outside the top 15 in this specific field.
Model Caution Zone
Players where independent benchmarks are 2x+ our model and market agrees. Notable: Schauffele at 2.3x after a T60 at Truist. His form has dropped significantly since the Masters T9. Spieth also flagged — market still prices the major pedigree at $11 despite our 0.4%.
How It's Built
SavvyPlays Monte Carlo Simulator — Phase 2: 10,000 tournament simulations built on 265,000+ rounds from the strokes gained era. No course profile available for Aronimink Golf Club (first PGA Championship hosting) — equal component weights applied. 140 of 156 players with sufficient history for skill estimation. Phase 2 calibration (102+ events): Enhanced Bayesian shrinkage, variance contribution cap (max std 3.0), cut-rate penalty for chronic cut-missers. Tail compression β=0.30. 156-player full field — model fully calibrated for this format. Equal-unit staking recommended across value picks. Not financial advice. Bet responsibly.
Picks
Hatton, Tyrrell
The biggest edge on the PGA Championship card at +2.2pp win and +8.9pp T10. Hatton's AdjSG of +1.29 ranks 8th in this 156-player field with elite approach (+0.41) and around-the-green play (+0.31) — exactly the skills that matter at a championship setup. He finished T3 at the Masters (-10) and has been consistently strong all season. At $75.50 the market treats him as a fringe contender; our model sees nearly 1-in-5 T10 probability (19.7% vs market 10.8%). The T10 market is the primary play.
DeChambeau, Bryson
The field's most powerful player at +0.97 SG:OTT — no one else is close. AdjSG of +1.51 ranks 3rd overall. DeChambeau has a major championship pedigree (2020 US Open winner, 2024 US Open winner) and thrives on demanding setups that reward length. At $25 he's the shortest-priced value pick on the card, but +1.2pp edge and nearly 1-in-4 T10 probability make him a genuine overlay.
Value Picks
| Player | Our Win% | Market $ | Edge | T10 Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hatton, Tyrrell | 3.5% | 74.48 | +2.19pp | +8.66pp |
| DeChambeau, Bryson | 5.2% | 26.22 | +1.37pp | +2.84pp |
| Fowler, Rickie | 2.4% | 71.55 | +1.03pp | +0.97pp |
| Reitan, Kristoffer | 1.6% | 141.00 | +0.94pp | +3.68pp |
| Snedeker, Brandt | 1.0% | 1151.00 | +0.94pp | +9.04pp |
| Puig, David | 1.4% | 151.00 | +0.72pp | +4.27pp |
| Woodland, Gary | 1.3% | 139.36 | +0.61pp | +4.03pp |
| Johnson, Dustin | 0.9% | 351.00 | +0.59pp | +5.74pp |
| Hojgaard, Nicolai | 2.0% | 71.00 | +0.58pp | +0.56pp |
| Young, Cameron | 6.7% | 16.00 | +0.49pp | -3.67pp |
| Fitzpatrick, Alex | 1.0% | 176.73 | +0.44pp | +2.52pp |
| Rai, Aaron | 0.8% | 281.00 | +0.42pp | +2.67pp |
| Hillier, Daniel | 0.6% | 451.00 | +0.39pp | +4.21pp |
| Kim, Michael | 0.5% | 551.00 | +0.35pp | +3.26pp |
| Sullivan, Andy | 0.4% | 2751.00 | +0.34pp | +6.36pp |
The Call
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 14 May
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice