The Open Championship
Royal Portrush Golf Club · July 16–19, 2026
Our third major of the season, and a more balanced links test than the Scottish Open. Royal Portrush's Dunluce Links puts approach play first at 34% with off-the-tee still significant at 20% — and that balance suits one player above all: the U.S. Open champion. Three players clear the Best Bet threshold at a major.
Royal Portrush — Dunluce Links
One of golf's great links courses on the Causeway Coast. Deep pot bunkers, firm fairways, coastal wind, and greens that demand local knowledge. Hosted The Open in 2019 (Lowry won) and returns for 2026. 452 historical rounds in our database, with course history for 128 of the 156 players in the field.
Season Context
Two Major Champions From the Value List
Rai won the PGA at $281 · Clark won the U.S. Open at $60
Four outright winners this season — Snedeker $351, Rai $281, Sterne $501, Clark $60. Fourteen events with T10 hits out of fifteen reviewed. Last week Kim Si Woo's T9 at the Scottish Open kept the streak alive. Now Royal Portrush — the Dunluce Links.
The Setup — A More Balanced Links Test
Royal Portrush profiles differently from last week's Renaissance Club. Approach leads at 34%, but off-the-tee is still significant at 20% — position matters in the Portrush wind. Around-the-green at 17% reflects the premium on scrambling from links rough and pot bunkers, and putting comes back into the picture at 29% after the Renaissance Club's season-low 19%. The balance suits all-round games over specialists — and it moves the U.S. Open champion to the top of the board.
Best Bet #1 — Wyndham Clark
Clark, Wyndham — $29
🔥 Best Bet (1.0u) · Our win%: 5.5% · Edge: +2.1pp · T10 edge: +3.1pp
The U.S. Open champion and the model's highest-conviction player all season. Clark won Shinnecock Hills, finished T5 at the Travelers, and posted T13 with +7.9 SG at the Scottish Open last week. His balanced elite profile (+0.58 APP, +0.49 PUTT, +0.22 OTT) suits Portrush's more balanced links profile better than the extreme off-the-tee demands of the Renaissance Club. At $29 the market respects him, but 5.5% vs 3.4% market implied is still genuine edge. A top-5 finish at a second major would cement his season.
Best Bet #2 — Jackson Suber
Suber, Jackson — $281
🔥 Best Bet (1.0u) · Our win%: 2.1% · Edge: +1.7pp · T10 edge: +6.9pp
The season's value pick MVP — two top-5 finishes (4th Byron Nelson, T4 Canadian Open) at prices from $156 to $326. Missed the Scottish Open last week (DNS) but is confirmed in the Open Championship field. At $281 in a major, the T10 each-way market is the primary play — 10.3% T10 probability vs market ~3.4%. High variance (2.79 std) creates the upside that pays at these prices.
Best Bet #3 — Si Woo Kim
Kim, Si Woo — $41
🔥 Best Bet (1.0u) · Our win%: 4.0% · Edge: +1.6pp · T10 edge: +4.5pp
T9 at the Scottish Open last week with +9.9 SG — links form confirmed. Kim's well-rounded game translates to any layout, and at $41 the market is underpricing a player ranked #6 in this field (+1.28 AdjSG). The links warm-up at the Renaissance Club produced a strong result, and Portrush's more balanced profile suits his game even better.
The Value Board — The Full 15
The balanced Portrush profile benefits Clark's all-round game most. Rai — our PGA Championship winner at $281 — sits as a ✅ Value at $61. Kitayama and Cole are win-market plays, not top-10 plays: their T10 edges are -0.4pp and -0.1pp — the market prices their top-10 chances tighter than the model likes, but the win edges at $81 are real. Hatton brings T7 at the US Open and elite approach play.
Head-to-Head Matchup Value
Kim over Thomas — +35% EV, the top matchup edge on the card. Our model: Kim 62.9%, offered 2.14 (46.7% implied). EV = 0.629 × 2.14 − 1 = +35%. Rai over Morikawa — +30% EV. Our model: Rai 55.2%, offered 2.35 (42.6% implied). EV = 0.552 × 2.35 − 1 = +30%. Clark over Aberg — +20% EV. Our model: Clark 55.9%, offered 2.15 (46.5% implied). EV = 0.559 × 2.15 − 1 = +20%.
First Round Leader
Scheffler leads FRL probability at 5.5% (fair $18.2) — AM wave, 09:14. Clark 3.6% (fair $27.4) — PM, 14:25. McIlroy 3.5% (fair $28.5) — AM, 10:09. Kim 3.1% (fair $32.4) — PM, 14:36. Rai 2.7% (fair $37.1) — AM, 10:09.
Make / Miss Cut Fades
Tosti (72.4% miss, fair $3.63 vs book $3.15) — FADE. Kizzire (71.8% miss, fair $3.55 vs book $2.50) — FADE. Conners (67.2% miss, fair $3.05 vs book $1.95) — FADE.
Where We Could Be Wrong
The course sample is thin — 452 rounds at Royal Portrush, all from the 2019 Open — and local knowledge matters here more than most venues. 17 players carry consensus signal that significantly exceeds our model and have been adjusted toward the consensus view: Shane Lowry (4.9x divergence — the 2019 Portrush champion), Xander Schauffele (3.9x), Justin Thomas (3.8x), and Tommy Fleetwood (2.8x) are the headline names. At a links major we lean toward consensus on the big-name adjustments rather than fighting the market. Scheffler is the market favourite at an implied 10.5% — our simulations have him at 7.3%, so we hold no position at that price. McIlroy is the fade: the market has him at an implied 9.1%, our simulations say 5.8%.
Value Picks
| Player | Our Win% | Market $ | Edge | T10 Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark, Wyndham | 5.5% | 29.00 | +2.10pp | +3.10pp |
| Suber, Jackson | 2.1% | 281.00 | +1.70pp | +6.90pp |
| Kim, Si Woo | 4.0% | 41.00 | +1.60pp | +4.50pp |
| Rai, Aaron | 2.6% | 61.00 | +1.00pp | +2.60pp |
| Hatton, Tyrrell | 3.8% | 34.00 | +0.90pp | +5.20pp |
| Knapp, Jake | 1.5% | 151.00 | +0.80pp | +2.30pp |
| Smalley, Alex | 1.7% | 116.00 | +0.80pp | +2.30pp |
| Reitan, Kristoffer | 1.4% | 166.00 | +0.80pp | +3.20pp |
| Kitayama, Kurt | 1.8% | 81.00 | +0.60pp | -0.40pp |
| Gotterup, Chris | 1.0% | 251.00 | +0.60pp | +3.50pp |
| Mitchell, Keith | 1.0% | 201.00 | +0.50pp | +0.50pp |
| Cole, Eric | 1.7% | 81.00 | +0.50pp | -0.10pp |
| Canter, Laurie | 0.8% | 301.00 | +0.50pp | +4.10pp |
| Spieth, Jordan | 1.4% | 101.00 | +0.40pp | +2.90pp |
| Meissner, Mac | 0.7% | 301.00 | +0.40pp | +4.20pp |
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 15 July
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice