Week 20 Recap
Rinkven International · TPC Craig Ranch · May 21-24, 2026
Two events, four top-ten hits, one outright winner. The Soudal Open delivered our third winner of the season — Richard Sterne at $501, sitting quietly at 0.25 units on the Radar tier. Over at the Byron Nelson, headline pick Stephan Jaeger landed T9 and Jackson Suber stormed to 4th. This is what the card looks like when the model is firing.
Soudal Open: Sterne at $501
Richard Sterne — WON at $501
👀 Radar · 0.25u · Our win%: 0.5% · Edge: +0.5pp · Finished -18
A 42-year-old South African veteran who hadn't won on the DP World Tour since 2020. The market had him at $501 — nobody was watching. Our model was: Sterne's +0.54 AdjSG placed him 9th in our skill rankings for the week. The edge was slim at +0.5pp, but on the Radar tier at a quarter-unit the downside was trivial and the payoff enormous.
He opened 64 (-7) and never looked back, closing at -18 with +12.1 SG for the week. Another player the market rounded down and our simulation surfaced — the same pattern that produced Snedeker ($351) and Rai ($281) earlier this season. Three outright winners this season, all off the value list, all at $280 or longer.
Soudal Open — Full Card Review
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richard Sterne 🏆 | $501 | 👀 0.25u | WON | ✓ |
| 2 | Marcus Kinhult | $186 | ✅ 0.5u | T2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ben Schmidt | $196 | ✅ 0.5u | T8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tom Vaillant | $103 | 👀 0.25u | T13 | ✗ |
| 5 | Jeff Winther | $188 | ✅ 0.5u | T17 | ✗ |
| 6 | Jack Buchanan | $1,001 | ✅ 0.5u | T24 | ✗ |
| 7 | Jens Dantorp | $301 | ✅ 0.5u | T30 | ✗ |
| 8 | JC Ritchie | $76 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 9 | Edoardo Molinari | $751 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 10 | Todd Clements | $91 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
JC Ritchie missed the cut. After that T3 at Catalunya and recurring value-pick status, our favourite Euro player had a bad week (-1.1 SG across two rounds). It happens. The point of the full-card approach is that Kinhult (T2), Schmidt (T8) and Sterne (WON) more than covered for it. You do not need to be right often; you need to be right at the right price.
CJ Cup Byron Nelson — The Headline Pick Delivers
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jackson Suber | $326 | ✅ 0.5u | 4th | ✓ |
| 2 | Zach Bauchou | $241 | 👀 0.25u | T6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Stephan Jaeger ★ | $73 | ✅ 0.5u | T9 | ✓ |
| 4 | A.J. Ewart | $501 | 👀 0.25u | T19 | ✗ |
| 5 | Doug Ghim | $102 | 👀 0.25u | T31 | ✗ |
| 6 | Mark Hubbard | $196 | ✅ 0.5u | T31 | ✗ |
| 7 | Kevin Roy | $151 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 8 | Carson Young | $301 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 9 | David Skinns | $501 | ✅ 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
Wyndham Clark shot a final-round 60 to win at -30. He wasn't on our value list — he was flagged in our caution zone at 2.8x divergence, a player the model suppressed who went on to win. But where it mattered the value picks delivered: Jaeger at T9 is our first headline pick to land a top ten since Rose at Augusta, and at $73 he was the shortest-priced value play on the card. Suber at 4th ($326) and Bauchou at T6 ($241) were the real payoffs, both in the $200–$350 band where the model consistently finds players the market has filed away. Suber carries that form straight into this week's Charles Schwab Challenge.
The Week in Numbers
Course Profile Validation
TPC Craig Ranch: putting delivered
We flagged Craig Ranch as 39% putting-dominant — the heaviest putting weighting of the season. The top five finishers averaged +3.2 SG:PUTT per round, and Clark's winning 60 on Sunday was fuelled by +4.4 SG:PUTT. The course played exactly as profiled: wide fairways, big greens, and the hot putter wins. When the course-fit read is built from 1,372 rounds, the number speaks clearly.
The caution zone keeps producing winners
Clark was flagged at 2.8x divergence in our caution zone — a player our model rated well below the market. He joins McIlroy (Augusta), Fitzpatrick (RBC Heritage), Rahm (PGA Championship runner-up) and now Clark (Byron Nelson) as suppressed names who went on to contend or win. The pattern is persistent enough that we are watching it closely — there may be signal in the divergence itself, and we would rather tell you that than pretend the model is never wrong.
Season Scoreboard
| Event | Best Hit | Headline Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Beach | Snedeker WON ($351) 🏆 | Brown T9 | ✅ 0.5u |
| Augusta | Rose T3 ($39) | Schauffele T9 | Headline T10 |
| Catalunya | Ritchie T3 ($81) | — | Euro pick hits |
| PGA Championship | Rai WON ($281) 🏆 | Pick #12 of 15 | 👀 0.25u |
| Byron Nelson | Suber 4th, Jaeger T9 | 3 T10 hits | ✅ 0.5u |
| Soudal Open | Sterne WON ($501) 🏆 | Kinhult T2, Schmidt T8 | 👀 0.25u |
Three outright winners — Snedeker $351, Rai $281, Sterne $501. Multiple top-five and top-ten hits across the season. The edge lives in full-field events at prices from $50 to $500 — players the market overlooks but our 10,000 simulations surface.
Up Next
The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial (132 players) and the Austrian Alpine Open (156 players). Colonial carries the deepest course history in our database — 2,408 rounds — so expect a confident course-fit read. And for the first time this season, the Austrian card carries a 🔥 Best Bet: Kevin Na at $371. Both previews are live now.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 27 May
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice