Week 26 Recap
TPC Deere Run · München Eichenried · July 2-5, 2026
Not every week produces fireworks. Higgo's T5 at the John Deere kept the streak alive — thirteen events with T10 hits out of fourteen reviewed. The BMW International was quieter, with Luiten (T11) the closest. After three consecutive weeks of Clark headlines and a U.S. Open victory, a lower-key week was always possible. The value list found one hit and moved on.
John Deere Classic — TPC Deere Run
Higgo, Garrick — T5 at $151
✅ Value (0.5u) · +0.9pp win edge · +7.9 SG
Higgo at T5 with +7.9 SG was the value list's sole T10 hit but it was a good one. His +0.9pp edge at $151 was the fourth-strongest on the card — a ✅ Value pick at a price where the T10 return comfortably covers the stake. Brown at T11 was one spot off — his +7.0 SG across four rounds confirmed the model's skill assessment even without a T10 finish.
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrick Higgo | $151 | ✅ 0.5u | T5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Blades Brown | $67 | ✅ 0.5u | T11 | ✗ |
| 3 | Carson Young | $176 | ✅ 0.5u | T19 | ✗ |
| 4 | Eric Cole | $36 | 👀 0.25u | T25 | ✗ |
| 5 | Emiliano Grillo | $85 | ✅ 0.5u | T29 | ✗ |
| 6 | Rico Hoey | $84 | ✅ 0.5u | T29 | ✗ |
| 7 | Brice Garnett | $301 | 👀 0.25u | T35 | ✗ |
| 8 | A.J. Ewart | $159 | ✅ 0.5u | T42 | ✗ |
Lee won at -22 in a field where birdies came cheap. The course profile called it — putting at 38% — and the leaderboard was dominated by hot putters all week.
BMW International Open — München Eichenried
A quieter week for the Euro card
Luiten T11 the closest · No T10 from the value list
Luiten at T11 was agonisingly close to keeping the Euro streak alive. Chacarra won again — his third win of the DP World Tour season, and once again from the consensus-adjusted zone (12.7x divergence). The LIV Golf contingent is proving difficult for our model to price correctly on the European circuit.
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joost Luiten | $166 | ✅ 0.5u | T11 | ✗ |
| 2 | Daniel Da Costa Rodrigues | $201 | ✅ 0.5u | T16 | ✗ |
| 3 | Todd Clements | $159 | 👀 0.25u | T20 | ✗ |
| 4 | JC Ritchie | $91 | ✅ 0.5u | T48 | ✗ |
| 5 | Jeff Winther | $224 | ✅ 0.5u | T65 | ✗ |
The Week in Numbers
Season Scoreboard
| Event | Best Hit | Headline Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myrtle Beach | Snedeker WON ($351) 🏆 | Brown T9 | ✅ 0.5u |
| Masters | Rose T3 ($39) | Schauffele T9 | — |
| Catalunya | Ritchie T3 ($81) | — | Euro pick hits |
| PGA Championship | Rai WON ($281) 🏆 | Pick #12 of 15 | 👀 0.25u |
| Byron Nelson | Suber 4th ($326) | Jaeger T9, Bauchou T6 | ✅ 0.5u |
| Soudal Open | Sterne WON ($501) 🏆 | Kinhult T2, Schmidt T8 | 👀 0.25u |
| Charles Schwab | Meissner T3 ($71) | Woodland T6 | ✅ 0.5u |
| Austrian Alpine | Luiten T7 ($151) | Steinlechner T7 | ✅ 0.5u |
| Memorial | Clark 3rd ($101) | 5 T10 hits — season best | ✅ 0.5u |
| Canadian Open | Suber T4 ($156) | Clark T11 near miss | ✅ 0.5u |
| U.S. Open | Clark WON ($60) 🏆 | 4 T10 hits at a major | 🔥 1.0u |
| Travelers | Clark T5 ($43) | Best Bet delivers again | 🔥 1.0u |
| Open d'Italia | Lagergren 4th ($246) | Winther T6, Da Costa T6 | ✅ 0.5u |
| John Deere | Higgo T5 ($151) | Brown T11 near miss | ✅ 0.5u |
Four outright winners. Two major champions. Thirteen events with T10 hits out of fourteen reviewed. Not every week delivers five hits. Some weeks it's one. The consistency across the season is what matters — the model finds value more often than it misses.
Up Next
The Open Championship is coming. The Genesis Scottish Open is the traditional Open warm-up. Then Royal Portrush. Two links events in two weeks — the model's course profiles will tell us who fits. 14,305 rounds in the database. Four outright winners. Two major champions. The Open Championship awaits.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 08 July
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice