**SavvyPlays Pick of the Day — TBR ML (+162)** Rasmussen's 2.71 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 underpin a pitcher composite of 36.24 — more than double Wrobleski's 15.94, despite the Dodger lefty carrying a deceptively tidy 2.95 ERA against a FIP that sits 82 points higher at 3.77, signaling meaningful regression risk. Tampa's lineup posts a modest .677 OPS versus left-handed pitching, but Wrobleski's 5.5 K/9 suggests he's suppressing damage through soft contact rather than missing bats, which makes that lineup disadvantage less punishing than it first appears. The model puts Tampa's road win probability at 55.6%, and at +162 the implied market probability is only 38.2% — that's a +17.5% edge the market is leaving on the table. This is a price disagreement worth quantifying, not a statement on certainty.