**CHW ML @ 2.42 | Tier 2 | +7.3% Model Edge** The pricing here implies roughly a 41% win probability for Chicago, while the model puts them at 48.6% — that 7.3-point gap is where the value lives. Neither starter profiles as an advantage arm: Burke's composite sits at 37.1 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but Weathers' 34.78 composite, 4.54 FIP, and 4.36 ERA suggest the Yankees aren't running out a stopper either. Chicago's lineup posts a .712 OPS against left-handed pitching, which is modest, but the New York offense at .757 OPS vs. right-handers is only marginally better, and the neutral run factor (100) doesn't inflate either side's ceiling. At a neutral park with two similarly flawed starters, the market is underpricing the White Sox at a line this long, and the model quantifies that disagreement at +7.3%.