**STL Cardinals ML (+142 | 2.42)** The most compelling number here isn't Liberatore's rough 5.56 ERA — it's Martín Pérez's composite score of 32.78, which sits meaningfully below Liberatore's 40.62 despite Pérez carrying the more polished surface-line stats. Pérez's 3.00 ERA is masking a 4.01 FIP, a gap that signals regression risk and explains why the model doesn't view him as the dominant arm his record suggests. Both lineups post nearly identical OPS against left-handed pitching — STL at .703, ATL at .680 — and comparable lineup composites of 52.27 vs. 52.6, meaning no meaningful offensive edge exists for Atlanta on paper. At +142, the market is pricing STL as a clear underdog, but the model's 51.4% win probability for the Cardinals represents a +10.1% edge worth quantifying — the disagreement with the line is real, and it's rooted in the pitcher composites rather than narrative.