The model's primary driver here is a significant pitcher composite gap: Drohan grades out at 65.53 versus May's 34.18, a 31-point differential that reflects Drohan's tighter ERA/FIP spread (3.12/3.27) against May's wider gap (4.80/3.46), suggesting May has been outperforming his underlying numbers and carries regression risk. Milwaukee's lineup posts a .748 OPS against right-handed pitching, which is a meaningful advantage against a starter whose 1.27 WHIP signals consistent contact allowed. St. Louis grades slightly higher on lineup composite (52.46 vs. 50.89), but facing Drohan's 9.3 K/9 at a .713 OPS against lefties limits how much damage that edge can do. At +7.1% model edge with the model assigning Milwaukee a 60.3% win probability against a market implying roughly 53%, this line reflects enough disagreement to warrant a position.