**SFG ML @ 1.79 | +4.6% Edge | Tier 2** The clearest driver here is Colorado's Tanner Gordon, whose 6.95 ERA and 1.59 WHIP reflect a pitcher the model grades at just 28.38 out of 100 — the kind of arm that gives a lineup room to work. San Francisco's offense carries a .735 OPS against right-handed pitching and a lineup composite of 53.22, which edges Colorado's 51.18 and represents a real, if modest, quality gap. The model prices San Francisco's win probability at 60.4%, while the implied probability baked into the 1.79 line sits closer to 55.9%, making this a +4.6% edge worth engaging at Tier 2. The Giants' starter is unconfirmed, which introduces uncertainty on that side, but Gordon's FIP of 5.13 — better than his ERA yet still poor — suggests the run-prevention problems are at least partially skill-based rather than purely luck-driven.