Yamamoto's 2.49 ERA, 79.35 composite, and 0.88 WHIP make him the clear pitching advantage here, and Arizona's lineup posting a .662 OPS against right-handers isn't inspiring — the model isn't blind to any of that. What it's identifying is a gap between Yamamoto's surface numbers and his 3.34 FIP, suggesting some regression in the underlying run-prevention, while the market has priced ARI at implied odds that leave +7.7% of disagreement on the table at 3.25. Pfaadt's 54.73 composite and 4.84 ERA are pedestrian, but a neutral run factor and LAD's lineup composite of just 54.63 keep the ceiling on Los Angeles's offensive output more contained than the odds imply. At this price, the model quantifies enough structural value to take the number on Arizona as a Tier 2 play.