Who Makes Their Team Better?

Before individual players, the team-level view sets the scene. We averaged every player’s per-game plus/minus across each club. The gap between the best and worst is staggering.

The Panthers’ average player is on-field for a +12.2 point margin per game — nearly 50% better than the second-placed Warriors (+8.4). At the other end, the Dragons’ average player experiences a -15.3 margin. That’s a 27.5 point swing between the best and worst teams, measured at the individual level.

The top of the plus/minus table is Panther country. Eight of the top thirteen belong to Penrith — not because they’re individually brilliant (though many are), but because the team’s system is so dominant that every player benefits. That said, the standouts from other clubs have earned their place.

Casey McLean is the runaway leader at +21.2 per game — the Panthers outscore opponents by three tries every game he plays. Away from Penrith, Clayton Faulalo has been a revelation for the Sea Eagles at fullback (+16.6), while Kalyn Ponga (+14.3 from just 6 games) shows the Knights are a completely different team when he’s fit.

The Warriors place five players in the top 15 — Capewell, Leiataua, Harris-Tavita, Watene-Zelezniak, and Egan. Unlike the Panthers, these aren’t household names playing in a dynasty. They’re a squad where everyone contributes. Even the Warriors’ worst plus/minus player (Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad) is still positive at +1.0.

If the top of the table belongs to the Panthers, the bottom belongs almost entirely to two clubs: the Dragons and the Eels.

Valentine Holmes stands out for the wrong reasons: -18.4 per game across 12 matches. That’s not a small sample — it’s nearly the entire season. He’s played 80.5 minutes per game and been on-field for a combined -221 points. For context, that’s worse than any player at any other club by a significant margin.

The Dragons occupy nine of the bottom twenty positions league-wide. Their best player (Jacob Liddle at -2.5) would be the worst regular at most other clubs. There is no hiding place in this squad — the problems are systemic, not individual.

The best bench players change the momentum of a game in 25-40 minutes. We filtered for players with at least five bench appearances to find who makes the biggest impact when they enter.

Jake Simpkin leads all bench players at +9.4 per game for the Sea Eagles — the scoreboard shifts by nearly 10 points in Manly’s favour every time he enters. Nat Butcher (Roosters, +9.3 across 10 games) and Demitric Vaimauga (Warriors, +8.7 across 11) round out the podium with larger sample sizes that make their numbers even more convincing.

The Warriors again stand out — two players in the top seven impact subs. The Panthers, Dolphins, and Roosters each place two in the top ten. Depth wins games late in the season when Origin, injuries, and fatigue thin squads. The clubs investing in quality bench rotations are the ones who’ll still be standing in September.

Kalyn Ponga has played just 6 games but the Knights’ on-field margin jumps from -0.4 to +14.3 when he’s on the park — a swing of nearly 15 points. The Knights are a middle-of-the-road team without him and a top-four contender with him. No other player in the NRL creates that kind of individual delta.

Apisai Koroisau (+12.2) transforms the Wests Tigers from a -4.1 team to one that outscores opponents when he’s involved. Jahream Bula (+10.1) has a similar effect — the Tigers’ spine is their strength, and when it’s intact, they compete with anyone.

For the Warriors, the story is collective rather than individual. No single Warrior dominates — their worst player is still positive. That’s the hallmark of a coaching system that elevates the whole squad rather than depending on stars.

We calculated this ‘impact delta’ — the gap between a player’s ±/G and their team’s average — for every club. The bigger the delta, the more that player individually lifts the scoreboard above what the rest of the squad delivers.

The delta column is revealing. Ativalu Lisati lifts the Storm’s on-field margin by 20 points above their team average — the single biggest individual impact in the NRL. But he’s played just 7 games, so sample size warrants caution. Koroisau (+16.3 delta over 8 games) and Ponga (+14.7 over 6 games) are the most proven difference-makers.

Notice the contrast between the top and bottom of the delta table. The Panthers’ MVP (McLean, delta +9.0) has a smaller delta than many clubs — not because he’s less talented, but because the entire Penrith system is so strong that no single player stands dramatically above the rest. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ MVP (Laurie, delta +3.9) is still negative in absolute terms — their best individual performer still can’t outrun the team’s struggles.

The Dragons tell the most sobering story: their most impactful player, Blake Lawrie, has a ±/G of -3.1. He’s the ‘MVP’ only because everyone else is worse. When your difference-maker is still losing the scoreboard by 3 points per game, the problems run deeper than personnel.

Plus/minus data feeds directly into our weekly tipping analysis. When we assess squad disruption — which players are out, and how much they matter — the ±/G metric is the backbone. A team losing a +15 player is fundamentally different from losing a +2 player, even if they play the same position.

Key watch for the second half of 2026:

The Panthers are historically dominant in plus/minus terms. Their depth means losing any single player barely dents the squad — even their worst regular (Kalani Going at -2.0) is replacement-level for most clubs. They’re built for the grind.

The Cowboys are winning on vibes. A season net of +3 across 12 matches means they’re one bounce of the ball from being 5-8 instead of 8-5. The underlying plus/minus suggests their record is fragile — watch for regression in the back half.

The Warriors are the real deal. Five players in the top 15, two elite impact subs, and a squad average of +8.4 backed by genuine depth. Their record (10-2) matches their underlying numbers. This is sustainable.

The Dragons need a rebuild, not a reshuffle. When your best regular is -2.5 per game, no single signing fixes the problem. The 1-12 record is the truest reflection of squad quality in the competition.