Broncos v Titans
The Queensland derby — and a mismatch. Broncos have won 3 straight against the Titans, who are 2-9 and win just 32% at Suncorp.
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · SavvyPlays · R14 Preview
The Queensland derby — and a mismatch. The Broncos have won 3 straight against the Titans, who have a dismal 32% record at Suncorp. The Predict model has this at +16.4 despite the Broncos losing Carrigan (lock, new out) and Shibasaki (centre, new out).
The Titans are 2-9 with a squad ±/G of -7.1 — every single starter is negative except Cooper Bai (+0.4). This is a comfortable Broncos win unless Brisbane implode.
The Verdict
01SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
The Broncos are disrupted — Carrigan (DS 3.0) and Shibasaki (DS 2.2) are new outs, giving a combined DS of 5.7. But the ELO gap (1499 vs 1339) is enormous, the Titans win just 32% at Suncorp (14W-30L), and the H2H is a 3-game winning streak to Brisbane. The Titans have one player in positive ±/G territory. The Broncos only need to be competent.
All Signals
02Key Signals
The Key Battles
03Key Matchups & Narratives
Both squads are negative by ±/G — Broncos at -4.2, Titans at -7.1. This is a battle between two underperforming teams, not a quality clash. The difference is the Broncos have Piakura (+4.4) and Gosiewski (+2.1) providing some forward thrust, while the Titans don't have a single starting forward with a positive ±/G.
Broncos disrupted but still favoured. Carrigan (lock, DS 3.0) and Shibasaki (centre, DS 2.2) are both new outs, giving the Broncos a DS of 5.7. But the Predict model still has them +16.4 because the ELO gap (1499 vs 1339) is enormous.
Cooper Bai is the Titans' lone bright spot. The lock is the only Titan with a positive ±/G (+0.4 across 11 games) — the rest of the squad is uniformly negative. When your best player is barely above zero, the team's problems are systemic.
The Titans have lost 9 of 11 games with an average margin of -8.0. At Suncorp, where they've won just 32% historically, the venue compounds their existing issues. The Broncos only need to be competent to win this comfortably.
Model Output
04Prediction Breakdown
ELO gives Broncos a 160-point advantage (1499 vs 1339). PCS reinforces it (152.4 vs 117.1). Disruption adjustments for Carrigan and Shibasaki shave the blended estimate from +17.0 to +16.4. Final predicted margin: Broncos by 16.4 points.
About This Preview
This preview combines four analytical layers: ELO ratings (updated after every match since 2007), Player Contribution Score (PCS — a weighted composite of 52 Champion Data player metrics on a rolling 15-game window), on-field Plus/Minus (±/G — net scoring margin per game across each player's exact on-field minutes), and the Edge Engine (a factor-based model incorporating coaching history, scheduling, and H2H patterns).
Squad availability is tracked via Best 17 percentage — the proportion of the first-choice XVII that are available. Disruption Score (DS) measures the cumulative positional impact of unavailable players. Predicted margin blends ELO (50%), PCS gap (30%), and form/venue adjustments (20%).
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