Rabbitohs v Broncos

The Predict model calls this a coin flip (-1.1 Broncos), but the model uses overall team PCS, not the named squads. When you look at who's actually playing, the picture changes dramatically. The Broncos are fielding their weakest squad of the season at 53% best-17 — missing their fullback, both centres, their best prop, and their captain at lock. The squad PCS gap of +40.1 is the widest of any match this round. The Rabbitohs lose Murray and Graham but are in far better shape at 65%. This is a Strong tip driven by disruption.

Accor Stadium is a comfortable home for the Rabbitohs at 59% (124W-86L, 211 games). The Broncos have struggled there, winning just 43% (12W-16L, 28 games) with an average margin of -4.6 points. This is not a fortress-level advantage but it tilts the field further toward the home side.

Broncos lead 3-2 in the last five meetings, but both Rabbitohs wins came at home in Sydney — a 22-14 win in 2025 R10 and a 22-12 win in 2024 R15. The Broncos' three wins all came at Suncorp. Venue matters in this H2H, and tonight is at Accor.

Rabbitohs — 65% Best 17 (DS 6.2). Squad avg ±/G: +1.1. Out: Cameron Murray (lock, DS 3.0), Campbell Graham (winger/centre, DS 1.5), Latrell Mitchell (centre, 4wk), Jack Wighton (centre, 6+wk), Peter Mamouzelos (interchange, 3wk), Davvy Moale (interchange, 11+wk).

Broncos — 53% Best 17 (DS 13.1). Squad avg ±/G: -5.7. Out: Reece Walsh (fullback, DS 4.5), Kotoni Staggs (centre, DS 2.2), Payne Haas (prop, DS 2.2), Patrick Carrigan (lock, 2wk, DS 2.1), Gehamat Shibasaki (centre, 2wk, DS 1.6).

The Broncos are a skeleton crew. At 53% best-17, this is the most disrupted squad Brisbane have fielded all season. Walsh, Staggs, and Haas are all new outs — their fullback, their best centre, and their best prop gone in one week. Add Carrigan (2 weeks) and Shibasaki (2 weeks) and you're looking at a team missing its entire spine and forward anchor.

Verhoeven at centre is a red flag. Antonio Verhoeven has played 1 NRL game for a ±/G of -28.0. He's replacing Staggs in the centres — a catastrophic downgrade. The Broncos' centre pairing of Verhoeven (1 GP, -28.0) and Anderson (3 GP, +1.0) has 4 combined games of NRL experience.

The Rabbitohs lose Murray but gain depth. Cameron Murray (lock, DS 3.0) is a significant out, but Lachlan Hubner (+4.9 across 11 games) has been excellent at lock all season. The spine of Walker (+4.2), Ward (-1.2), and Smith (+5.5) is intact.

Reynolds is carrying a broken team. Without Walsh, Staggs, Haas, and Carrigan, Reynolds is essentially playing behind a reserve-grade pack. Piakura (+3.2) and Gosiewski (+1.9) are the only bright spots in the Broncos' starting 13.

The Predict model uses overall team PCS (145.2 vs 132.5) which includes players who aren't playing tonight. The named squad PCS tells the real story: 109.8 vs 69.7 — a gap of 40.1 points. When the model says it's even but the squad says it's a mismatch, trust the squad. The disruption score of 13.1 for the Broncos pushes this well past our Strong threshold.