Dolphins v Warriors

Three reasons this is the strongest tip of the round. First, the squad-quality gap. Dolphins at 88% Best 17 are nearly at full strength — only Saifiti and Gilbert are out. The Warriors at 65% Best 17 lose Fisher-Harris, Halasima, Khan-Pereira, and now Ford. The aggregated PCS gap is +50.9, the widest of the round.

Second, the starting 13s: Dolphins +8.8 ±/G against Warriors +7.4 — tight by per-game numbers, but the Warriors' figures are propped up by absent contributors who are not playing tonight. Third, the Warriors have won just 38% of their trips to Suncorp Stadium historically, the poorest road venue carried into the round. Predict +6.6 with the Dolphins favoured.

Suncorp is a Dolphins home ground and an unfriendly visitor venue for the Warriors — 38% road wins historically, the worst figure carried into the round by any away side. The Dolphins go 60%+ at Suncorp when at full strength, and they are at full strength tonight.

H2H is closer than the squad signal would suggest: Warriors 3-2 in the last five. Two of the Warriors' three wins were one-score results — 20-18 in R8 2026 at Hnry Stadium and 24-20 at Go Media in R12 2024. The Dolphins' two wins were also one-score (20-18 in R22 2025 and 34-32 in R23 2024). Every recent meeting has been close — but tonight the disruption signal is finally lopsided.

PCS gap +50.9 — widest of the round. The aggregated Player Contribution Score across the named 17 is more lopsided here than in any other R17 fixture. That is the function of the Dolphins rolling out a near-optimal squad while the Warriors absorb four unavailable senior contributors.

Dolphins at full strength. With only Saifiti and Gilbert out, the Dolphins' named 17 sits at 88% of optimal. Starters at +8.8 ±/G reflect a side hitting its straps at the right time of the year — they enter R17 at 9-5 with a fixture they should win.

Warriors at 65% — losses in key positions. Fisher-Harris (middle engine), Halasima (back-row attack), Khan-Pereira (wing strike) and Ford (spine cover) are all out. Some of those are short-term, but the cumulative effect on a single fixture is significant — and the Warriors' +7.4 squad ±/G is propped up by names not playing tonight.

Warriors at Suncorp: 38% W. The Warriors travel poorly to Suncorp specifically — six wins from sixteen historical visits. That is the lowest road-venue rate any side carries into the round.

Predict +6.6 with the Dolphins favoured. The squad PCS gap is the widest of the round, the venue lean is real (Warriors 38% W at Suncorp), and the Dolphins' near-full-strength outfit is the highest-quality combination they have fielded since R10. The tip is Dolphins by 10.