Raiders v Dragons
Dragons 14% at GIO (worst venue bogey in the NRL). Raiders 4-1 H2H. PCS gap +49.5. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.
SavvyPlays · 25 June 2026 · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sunday 28 June · 2:00PM AEST
The worst venue bogey in the NRL. The Dragons have won 2 of their last 14 visits to GIO Stadium (14%), the lowest visitor-rate any side carries into any fixture this round. Add a 4-1 H2H to the Raiders and a PCS gap of +49.5 and the call writes itself.
Squad starters: Raiders -5.8 ±/G against Dragons -13.4 — a 7.6-point per-game gap on a low base. Both sides are at 88% Best 17, so the disruption signal is neutral. The story is venue, H2H and quality. Predict +16.4. Strong tip: Raiders by 14.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01Raiders by 14
Three reasons this is a Strong tip even between two struggling sides. First, the venue. The Dragons have won 2 of their last 14 trips to GIO Stadium (14%) — the worst single-venue record any side carries into any R17 fixture. Second, the H2H. The Raiders have won four of the last five against the Dragons, including the last meeting at GIO (28-24 in R18 2025).
Third, the squad gap. Raiders starters average -5.8 ±/G; Dragons starters -13.4. Both sides sit at 88% Best 17 so the disruption signal is neutral, but the per-game gap is 7.6 points and the PCS gap is +49.5 in the home side's favour. Predict +16.4 — Strong tip, Raiders by 14.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
GIO Stadium is one of the toughest road venues in the NRL for the Dragons. Two wins from fourteen visits (14%) — the lowest visitor-rate any side carries into any fixture this round. Even the most recent visit (R18 2025) ended 28-24 to the Raiders.
The Raiders have won four of the last five H2H meetings. The lone Dragons win came at WIN Stadium in R22 2025 (18-12) — at the Dragons' home venue, not Canberra. At GIO specifically, the Raiders are unbeaten in the last three meetings.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | Dragons v Raiders | 18-12 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R18 | Raiders v Dragons | 28-24 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R27 | Dragons v Raiders | 24-26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R19 | Dragons v Raiders | 26-36 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R7 | Raiders v Dragons | 20-14 | Raiders |
Named Squads
03Raiders — 88% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: -6.7
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | Fullback | 15 | -8.2 |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | Wing | 12 | -5.8 |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | Centre | 9 | -4.1 |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | Centre | 10 | -7.2 |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | Wing | 10 | -10.2 |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | Five-Eighth | 12 | -10.7 |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | Halfback | 15 | -7.7 |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | Prop | 15 | -5.3 |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | Hooker | 7 | +0.3 |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | Prop | 15 | -7.2 |
| 11 | Hudson Young | Second Row | 11 | -9.9 |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | Second Row | 13 | -5.5 |
| 13 | Jayden Brailey | Lock | 14 | -5.6 |
| 14 | Tom Starling | Interchange | 15 | -5.1 |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | Interchange | 15 | -4.3 |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | Interchange | 15 | -3.3 |
| 17 | Sebastian Kris | Interchange | 13 | -5.9 |
Out: Standard mid-season rotation; senior squad named.
Named Squads
04Dragons — 88% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: -15.1
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | Fullback | 11 | -13.0 |
| 2 | Setu Tu | Wing | 12 | -17.1 |
| 3 | Mathew Feagai | Centre | 9 | -14.8 |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | Centre | 14 | -17.5 |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | Wing | 5 | -20.0 |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | Five-Eighth | 13 | -13.9 |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | Halfback | 11 | -11.2 |
| 8 | Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | Prop | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | Hooker | 14 | -14.8 |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | Prop | 13 | -12.4 |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | Second Row | 6 | -14.0 |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | Second Row | 14 | -15.8 |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | Lock | 10 | -16.1 |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | Interchange | 6 | -3.0 |
| 15 | Emre Guler | Interchange | 12 | -9.2 |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | Interchange | 12 | -7.7 |
| 17 | Luciano Leilua | Interchange | 11 | -11.4 |
Out: Senior squad named — but team form remains the worst in the comp.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
Two struggling sides — but one is more struggling. The Raiders sit 5-10 and the Dragons 1-13. Both fielded ordinary ±/G figures all season, but the gap on starting 13 ±/G is meaningful: -5.8 vs -13.4 is a 7.6-point per-game spread, and PCS aggregated across the 17 is +49.5 in the home side's favour.
GIO is the lever. The Dragons travel poorly anywhere but particularly to Canberra. Two wins from fourteen visits is the biggest single-venue bogey of any fixture this weekend. The Raiders do not need much from their 13 to capitalise — they just need to show up at the level they have shown at home recently.
H2H 4-1 with the Dragons' only win away from GIO. The streak is real and the Dragons' last GIO trip ended in a 4-point loss with better personnel than they are fielding tonight. Without a step-up in form, the venue history compounds.
Both sides at 88% Best 17. The disruption signal cancels out — neither side has an excuse on roster availability. That leaves venue, H2H and quality, and all three favour the Raiders.
The Dragons have won 2 of their last 14 visits to GIO Stadium (14%) — the lowest visitor-rate any side carries into any fixture this round. Even allowing for the Dragons' poor season form, the venue history is the biggest single argument against an upset.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
Predict +16.4 — comfortably Strong band. The 14% Dragons record at GIO is the biggest venue lever of the round, the H2H sits 4-1 to the Raiders, and the PCS gap (+49.5) and starting 13 ±/G gap (+7.6) both favour the home side. Tip: Raiders by 14.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R17 teamlist announcement, 25 June 2026.
SavvyPlays — NRL Analytics & Tipping · © 2026