Round 18 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Broncos v Sharks

Broncos at 53% Best 17 for the third time this year. Squad PCS gap the widest in R18. Strong tip: Sharks by 10.

SavvyPlays · 2 July 2026 · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Saturday 4 July · 7:35PM AEST

For the third time this season the Broncos name a Best 17 of 53% or worse. Reece Walsh, Payne Haas, Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds and Ben Karapani all miss — a Disruption Score of 13.2 against the named squad. The Broncos spine PCS is 3.2, barely functional at NRL level. Starters average -6.7 ±/G.

The Sharks arrive at 76% Best 17, near full strength. Starters average +2.9 ±/G — a 9.6-point per-game gap in favour of the visitors. The Squad PCS gap is the widest of any R18 game. Predict margin points visitors. H2H sits Broncos 3-2 over the last five, but at this level of disruption H2H does not matter. Strong tip: Sharks by 10.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Sharks by 10

Three reasons this is a Strong tip. First, the Broncos name a Best 17 of 53% — third time they have done so this season. Reece Walsh, Payne Haas, Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds and Ben Karapani are all out. The Disruption Score is 13.2, one of the largest hits to a named squad this season.

Second, the Sharks arrive at 76% Best 17 with the spine intact. Starters average +2.9 ±/G against a Broncos starting 13 averaging -6.7 — a 9.6-point per-game gap. Third, the PCS gap. Broncos spine PCS reads 3.2 (Duffy, Hunt, Paix and Perham); the aggregate Squad PCS gap is the widest of any R18 fixture. Edge Engine reads BACK AWAY at -3. Strong call: Sharks by 10.

-9.5

Predict Margin

-6.7

Broncos Squad ±/G

+2.9

Sharks Squad ±/G

+9.6

Squad ±/G Gap

53%

Broncos Best 17

76%

Sharks Best 17

13.2

Broncos DS

3-2

H2H Last 5

Venue & Head-to-Head

02Venue & Head-to-Head

Suncorp Stadium is normally a Broncos advantage, but the venue lever does not survive a 13.2 Disruption Score. When the spine goes, the venue matters less. The Broncos won the most recent meeting 34-28 at Suncorp in R16 2025, but the fixture before that — R14 2024 — saw the Sharks win 22-12 here.

H2H sits Broncos 3-2 over the last five. The Sharks' two wins came in R14 2024 (22-12 at Suncorp) and R24 2021 (24-16 at Suncorp) — both interestingly at Suncorp itself. The Broncos have won three of the last five in the head-to-head, but at the disruption level named this week the historical trend loses its predictive weight.

Year	Round	Match	Score	Winner
2025	R16	Broncos v Sharks	34-28	Broncos
2024	R14	Broncos v Sharks	12-22	Sharks
2023	R14	Sharks v Broncos	12-20	Broncos
2022	R8	Broncos v Sharks	16-7	Broncos
2021	R24	Sharks v Broncos	24-16	Sharks

Named Squads

03Broncos — 53% Best 17 (DS 13.2) — Squad avg ±/G: -6.7

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Hayze Perham	Fullback	2	-19.5
2	Grant Anderson	Wing	5	-9.0
3	Kotoni Staggs	Centre	12	-1.2
4	Gehamat Shibasaki	Centre	11	-7.4
5	Deine Mariner	Wing	9	-0.6
6	Thomas Duffy	Five-Eighth	5	-10.4
7	Ben Hunt	Halfback	9	-6.8
8	Va'a Semu	Prop	6	-5.7
9	Cory Paix	Hooker	14	-3.6
10	Preston Riki	Prop	7	-8.1
11	Brendan Piakura	Second Row	10	-2.4
12	Jordan Riki	Second Row	13	-7.2
13	Xavier Willison	Lock	15	-5.3
14	Blake Mozer	Interchange	2	+0.0
15	Ben Talty	Interchange	15	-4.5
16	Jaiyden Hunt	Interchange	3	-13.3
17	Jesse Arthars	Interchange	10	-10.3

Out: Reece Walsh, Payne Haas, Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds and Ben Karapani all unavailable. Third time this season the Broncos have named a 53%-or-worse Best 17.

Named Squads

04Sharks — 76% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: +2.9

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	William Kennedy	Fullback	14	+3.2
2	Sione Katoa	Wing	7	-1.9
3	Jesse Ramien	Centre	9	+3.2
4	KL Iro	Centre	12	+1.4
5	Ronaldo Mulitalo	Wing	5	+6.6
6	Braydon Trindall	Five-Eighth	14	+3.2
7	Nicholas Hynes	Halfback	10	+3.4
8	Thomas Hazelton	Prop	14	-1.3
9	Jayden Berrell	Hooker	3	+5.3
10	Jesse Colquhoun	Prop	14	+3.1
11	Billy Burns	Second Row	13	+5.4
12	Teig Wilton	Second Row	12	+2.6
13	Cameron McInnes	Lock	7	+3.6
14	Hohepa Puru	Interchange	6	+3.8
15	Oregon Kaufusi	Interchange	10	-2.4
16	Siosifa Talakai	Interchange	13	-1.7
17	Tuku Hau Tapuha	Interchange	—	—

Out: Near-full-strength Sharks squad. Nicho Hynes (+3.4) and Braydon Trindall (+3.2) both start.

Match Analysis

05Key Matchups & Narratives

The Broncos' spine is not viable. Hayze Perham at fullback, Thomas Duffy and Ben Hunt in the halves, Cory Paix at hooker. Spine PCS 3.2. That is the third-worst spine number of any team this season — and two of the other three worst were also Broncos.

Best 17 at 53% for the third time. Once is bad luck; twice is a trend; three times is a competitive-integrity concern. The Broncos have not fielded their optimal lineup in the majority of games since mid-May and it shows in the record: 5-10 entering R18.

The Sharks have their spine. Nicho Hynes (+3.4) and Braydon Trindall (+3.2) start together, William Kennedy (+3.2) at fullback, Jayden Berrell at hooker. Not the best spine in the NRL but functional and consistent — enough against this Broncos team.

Squad PCS gap the widest in R18. The aggregated Player Contribution Score gap between these two named squads is the largest of any fixture this round. Sharks squad averages +2.9 ±/G; Broncos -6.7. That 9.6-point per-game gap is the model's core signal.

Broncos 53% Best 17 — Third Time in 2026

Reece Walsh, Payne Haas, Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds and Ben Karapani all miss. Disruption Score 13.2. Spine PCS 3.2. The named 17 is missing three of the four spine positions and one of the front-row anchors — genuinely one of the weakest Broncos teamsheets of the season.

Prediction

06Prediction Breakdown

Predict margin -9.5 with the Sharks favoured. The 9.6-point per-game squad ±/G gap, the 23-point Best 17 gap, the PCS gap the widest of the round, and a 13.2 Disruption Score against the home side all point the same way. Edge Engine reads -3 (BACK AWAY). Sharks by 10.

5-10

Broncos Record

8-6

Sharks Record

53%