Eels v Sea Eagles
Squad ±/G gap +17.2 to Manly — widest in R18. Sea Eagles field Faulalo, Fogarty and Trbojevic despite DS 9.9. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 12.
SavvyPlays · 2 July 2026 · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sunday 5 July · 2:00PM AEST
The Sea Eagles lose Luke Brooks, Tolu Koula and Haumole Olakau'atu — a Disruption Score of 9.9. That would derail most teams. It does not derail this one. Clayton Faulalo (+15.9), Jamal Fogarty (+9.4) at halfback and Tom Trbojevic (+3.6) at fullback all remain, and starters still average +7.6 ±/G.
The Eels lose Mitchell Moses again (DS 4.5) and hand the halves to Jonah Pezet (-13.2) and Ronald Volkman (-11.1). Starters average -9.6 ±/G. The 17.2-point per-game gap in favour of the visitors is the widest of any R18 game and the Sea Eagles are +6.4 season-long ±/G against the Eels' -7.8. CommBank has been a decent Sea Eagles venue in 2026 (they beat the Eels here in R12 2025 the other way). Predict -14.0. Strong tip: Sea Eagles by 12.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01Sea Eagles by 12
Two dominant signals push this to Strong. First, the squad ±/G gap. Eels starters -9.6 against Sea Eagles starters +7.6 — a 17.2-point per-game gap, the widest of any R18 fixture. Even after the Sea Eagles absorb Brooks, Koula and Olakau'atu (DS 9.9), Faulalo (+15.9), Fogarty (+9.4), Ben Trbojevic (+9.7) and Jason Saab (+7.7) still name.
Second, Moses out for the Eels. Mitchell Moses missing again (DS 4.5) hands the halves to Jonah Pezet (-13.2) and Ronald Volkman (-11.1). That is one of the worst-rated halves combinations of any team all season. Even with the Sea Eagles going 40% at CommBank historically, the model has this at -14.0. Strong call: Sea Eagles by 12.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
CommBank Stadium has been a modestly negative venue for the Sea Eagles (40% win rate at CommBank in recent history). That is a real counter-signal — but the squad-quality gap on the sheet is too large for the venue lever to close. The Eels won the last meeting at CommBank 30-10 in R12 2025, but Moses started and the Sea Eagles were without T. Trbojevic and Fogarty.
The Sea Eagles hold a 3-2 edge over the last five meetings. The most recent was a 33-18 Sea Eagles win at 4 Pines Park in R8 2026. Before that came a 30-10 Eels win at CommBank (R12 2025) and a 26-12 Sea Eagles win at 4 Pines (R4 2025). The Sea Eagles have the recency edge and the season-long form edge.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Sea Eagles v Eels | 33-18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R12 | Eels v Sea Eagles | 30-10 | Eels |
| 2025 | R4 | Sea Eagles v Eels | 26-12 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R8 | Sea Eagles v Eels | 32-18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R3 | Eels v Sea Eagles | 28-24 | Eels |
Named Squads
03Eels — DS 4.5 — Squad avg ±/G: -9.6
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | Fullback | 8 | -10.1 |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | Wing | 13 | -14.4 |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | Centre | 7 | -6.6 |
| 4 | Sean Russell | Centre | 13 | -10.2 |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | Wing | 14 | -8.6 |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | Five-Eighth | 10 | -11.1 |
| 7 | Jonah Pezet | Halfback | 5 | -13.2 |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | Prop | 12 | -5.2 |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | Hooker | 15 | -6.1 |
| 10 | Jack Williams | Prop | 15 | -11.7 |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | Second Row | 11 | -7.0 |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | Second Row | 10 | -12.1 |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | Lock | 12 | -8.3 |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | Interchange | 15 | -3.7 |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | Interchange | 9 | -2.3 |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | Interchange | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Edwards | Interchange | 4 | -3.5 |
Out: Mitchell Moses out again. Jonah Pezet (-13.2) starts at halfback with Ronald Volkman (-11.1) at five-eighth.
Named Squads
04Sea Eagles — DS 9.9 — Squad avg ±/G: +7.6
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | Fullback | 8 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Jason Saab | Wing | 14 | +7.7 |
| 3 | Clayton Faulalo | Centre | 9 | +15.9 |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | Centre | 14 | +8.7 |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | Wing | 14 | +9.7 |
| 6 | Joey Walsh | Five-Eighth | 1 | +8.0 |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | Halfback | 13 | +9.4 |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | Prop | 15 | +6.9 |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | Hooker | 15 | +4.5 |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | Prop | 13 | +2.7 |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | Second Row | 6 | +4.5 |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | Second Row | 15 | +9.7 |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | Lock | 15 | +7.3 |
| 14 | Josh Feledy | Interchange | 5 | +6.8 |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | Interchange | 10 | +4.5 |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | Interchange | 12 | -0.3 |
| 17 | Simione Laiafi | Interchange | — | — |
Out: Luke Brooks, Tolu Koula and Haumole Olakau'atu all unavailable — DS 9.9. Clayton Faulalo (+15.9), Jamal Fogarty (+9.4) and Tom Trbojevic (+3.6) all remain.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
Sea Eagles depth is real. Losing Brooks (5/8), Koula and Olakau'atu is a genuine hit — DS 9.9. But Faulalo (+15.9) has been the best-rated centre in the NRL over his sample, Fogarty (+9.4) at halfback is a top-five performer, and Ben Trbojevic (+9.7) leads the edge forwards. The starting 13 still averages +7.6 ±/G.
Eels halves are catastrophic. Moses out (DS 4.5) drops the Eels to Pezet (-13.2) and Volkman (-11.1). Combined ±/G of -24.3 for the two positions that control the game. That is worse than any halves combination the Broncos are running.
CommBank has not been Manly-friendly. Sea Eagles at 40% at CommBank in recent history. That is a genuine counter-signal that would ordinarily nudge this back to Lean — but the 17.2-point ±/G gap is too wide for venue to overturn. The Eels are -7.8 ±/G season-long; the Sea Eagles are +6.4. A 14.2-point season-long gap.
H2H tilt to Manly. Three of the last five to the Sea Eagles, including the R8 2026 meeting 33-18 at 4 Pines Park. That is a strong recency signal on top of the season-long form gap.
With Mitchell Moses out again, the Eels field Jonah Pezet (-13.2 ±/G) at halfback and Ronald Volkman (-11.1) at five-eighth. Combined -24.3. That is one of the worst-rated halves pairings named all season, and the primary reason the squad ±/G gap runs to 17.2 points per game.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
Predict margin -14.0 with the Sea Eagles favoured. The 17.2-point per-game squad ±/G gap is the widest in R18. The Eels' halves combination is one of the weakest named this year. The Sea Eagles' CommBank record is the only real counter and it is not close to enough. Sea Eagles by 12.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Disruption Score (DS) measures the quality-weighted impact of missing players. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R18 teamlist announcement, 2 July 2026.
SavvyPlays — NRL Analytics & Tipping · © 2026