Dolphins v Sharks
Dolphins 3-1 in the fixture — all four prior meetings away. Now it comes to the Redcliffe fortress (59.5%). Lean tip: Dolphins by 6.
SavvyPlays · 10 July 2026 · Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe · Saturday 11 July · 3:00PM AEST
The Dolphins own this matchup. They are 3-1 across the four meetings since entering the competition — and every one of those games was played at a Sharks home ground. This week the fixture finally lands at Redcliffe, where the Dolphins win 59.5% of their matches. Their full named squad averages +6.6 ±/G against the Sharks' +3.4, and the model puts the home side +7.7.
The counter-case is real. The Sharks arrive at 94% Best 17 — the closest to full strength of any side this round — with Nicho Hynes back at halfback, while the Dolphins are still without Isaiya Katoa (DS 3.1). The CI/DS edge runs 1.7 to the visitors. Both teams are genuinely strong; home advantage and the head-to-head record tip it. Lean tip: Dolphins by 6.
SavvyPlays Tip — Lean
01Dolphins by 6
Three signals favour the home side. First, the head-to-head: Dolphins 3-1 across the four meetings in this fixture's history, including a 38-10 demolition at Cronulla in R3 this season — and all four of those games were played on the Sharks' side of the draw. Second, the venue: Redcliffe is a genuine fortress at 59.5%. Third, the squad numbers: Dolphins +6.6 ±/G against +3.4, with the model at +7.7.
Why only a Lean? The Sharks are at 94% Best 17 — near full strength, with Hynes back steering the ship — while the Dolphins remain without Isaiya Katoa for another fortnight, and the CI/DS edge of 1.7 sits with the visitors. Both sides are top-eight quality. Home ground and history settle it: Dolphins by 6.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
Kayo Stadium is one of the better home grounds in the competition — the Dolphins win 59.5% of their matches at Redcliffe. Remarkably, this is the first meeting between these two clubs to be played there: all four prior fixtures were hosted by the Sharks.
The Dolphins won three of those four away games — 38-10 in R3 this season, 30-28 in 2024 and 36-16 in 2023. The Sharks' one win came in R19 2025, 24-12. A side that is 3-1 in a fixture without ever hosting it now gets the game at its fortress.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Sharks v Dolphins | 10-38 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R19 | Sharks v Dolphins | 24-12 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R15 | Sharks v Dolphins | 28-30 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R10 | Sharks v Dolphins | 16-36 | Dolphins |
Named Squads
03Dolphins — DS 3.1 — Squad avg ±/G: +6.8
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trai Fuller | Fullback | 5 | +13.4 |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | Wing | 16 | +8.1 |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | Centre | 8 | -4.8 |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | Centre | 15 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | Wing | 5 | +11.8 |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | Five-Eighth | 12 | +7.0 |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | Halfback | 11 | +6.6 |
| 8 | Felise Kaufusi | Prop | 14 | +3.4 |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | Hooker | 8 | +17.4 |
| 10 | Francis Molo | Prop | 12 | -2.7 |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | Second Row | 16 | +7.8 |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | Second Row | 15 | +6.4 |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | Lock | 15 | +5.7 |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | Interchange | 9 | +8.1 |
| 15 | Ray Stone | Interchange | 14 | +8.3 |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | Interchange | 15 | +3.8 |
| 17 | Sebastian Su'a | Interchange | 1 | -2.0 |
Out: Isaiya Katoa still sidelined (DS 3.1, expected back within a fortnight). Bradley Schneider (+6.6) continues at halfback.
Named Squads
04Sharks — 94% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: +3.4
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | Fullback | 15 | +3.8 |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | Wing | 8 | -0.1 |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | Centre | 10 | +4.1 |
| 4 | KL Iro | Centre | 13 | +2.2 |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | Wing | 6 | +7.5 |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | Five-Eighth | 15 | +3.8 |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | Halfback | 11 | +4.2 |
| 8 | Thomas Hazelton | Prop | 15 | -0.4 |
| 9 | Jayden Berrell | Hooker | 4 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | Prop | 15 | +3.3 |
| 11 | Billy Burns | Second Row | 14 | +5.9 |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | Second Row | 13 | +3.3 |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | Lock | 8 | +4.6 |
| 14 | Hohepa Puru | Interchange | 7 | +5.6 |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | Interchange | 14 | -1.1 |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | Interchange | 11 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Tuku Hau Tapuha | Interchange | 1 | +6.0 |
Out: Sharks at 94% Best 17 — near full strength. Nicho Hynes (+4.2) returns at halfback.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
Jeremy Marshall-King is the form hooker in the competition — +17.4 ±/G since returning. With Trai Fuller (+13.4) at fullback and Tevita Naufahu (+11.8) on the wing, the Dolphins' spine and back five carry the biggest positive numbers on either sheet.
The halfback battle is closer than the reputations suggest. Nicho Hynes returns for the Sharks at +4.2; Bradley Schneider, deputising for Katoa, is running at +6.6. Katoa's absence (DS 3.1) matters less while Schneider produces numbers like that.
The Sharks' profile is solid without a spike. Every starter bar Thomas Hazelton (-0.4) and Sione Katoa (-0.1) is in positive territory — Billy Burns (+5.9) and Ronaldo Mulitalo (+7.5) lead the way — but nobody is producing Marshall-King or Fuller numbers. At 94% Best 17 they will be competitive everywhere; the question is where they actually win the game.
All four prior Dolphins-Sharks fixtures were played at Sharks home grounds — and the Dolphins still won three of them. This is the first time the fixture comes to Kayo Stadium, where the Dolphins win 59.5% of their games.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
Predict margin +7.7 with the Dolphins favoured. The Sharks' near-full-strength squad and the CI/DS edge keep this a Lean rather than a Strong, but the head-to-head dominance, the Redcliffe fortress and the better squad numbers all sit with the home side. Dolphins by 6.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Disruption Score (DS) measures the quality-weighted impact of missing players. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R19 teamlist announcement, 10 July 2026.
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