Roosters v Eels
PCS gap +59.0, squad ±/G +0.2 v -8.7, and the Eels win just 29% at Allianz. Strong tip: Roosters by 18.
SavvyPlays · 10 July 2026 · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Saturday 11 July · 7:35PM AEST
The numbers in this one are lopsided. The PCS gap sits at +59.0 to the Roosters — the second widest of the round — and the full-squad ±/G split reads +0.2 against -8.7. Hugo Savala (+11.0) has made the halfback jersey his own, while Mitchell Moses returns for the Eels carrying a -13.7 ±/G — the worst figure of any starting halfback in the NRL.
The venue compounds it. The Roosters win 62% at Allianz; the Eels win just 29% there — the worst away-venue record of any side in an R19 matchup. The Roosters are 4-1 over the last five head-to-head, and the model puts the margin at +20.7. Strong tip: Roosters by 18.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01Roosters by 18
Every layer of the model points the same way. The PCS gap of +59.0 is the second widest of the round. The full-squad ±/G split is +0.2 to -8.7 — an 8.9-point per-game edge. And the venue splits are extreme: Roosters 62% at Allianz, Eels 29% there — the worst away-venue record in any R19 matchup.
The halfback contrast is the story within the story. Hugo Savala (+11.0) has been electric since taking the No. 7; Mitchell Moses returns for Parramatta at -13.7, the worst ±/G of any starting halfback in the competition. With a 4-1 head-to-head edge and the model at +20.7, this is a Strong call: Roosters by 18.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
Allianz Stadium is a reliable home ground for the Roosters at 62% — but the sharper signal is the other side of the ledger. The Eels win just 29% of their matches at Allianz, the worst away-venue record held by any team in this round's fixtures.
The Roosters are 4-1 over the last five meetings, with wins by 24, 10, 22 and 8. The caution flag: the one Eels win is the most recent — a 30-10 result at CommBank late in 2025. That game was played away from Allianz, with a different Roosters halves pairing. The four Roosters wins before it were all comfortable.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R25 | Eels v Roosters | 30-10 | Eels |
| 2024 | R24 | Roosters v Eels | 38-14 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R15 | Eels v Roosters | 18-28 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R25 | Eels v Roosters | 12-34 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R5 | Roosters v Eels | 28-20 | Roosters |
Named Squads
03Roosters — Squad avg ±/G: +4.4
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | Fullback | 14 | +7.0 |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | Wing | 10 | +6.7 |
| 3 | Billy Smith | Centre | 7 | -3.9 |
| 4 | Robert Toia | Centre | 13 | +9.4 |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | Wing | 10 | +7.4 |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | Five-Eighth | 15 | +4.0 |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | Halfback | 11 | +11.0 |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | Prop | 15 | +1.6 |
| 9 | Connor Watson | Hooker | 15 | +3.6 |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | Prop | 11 | +0.9 |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | Second Row | 13 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Siua Wong | Second Row | 15 | +4.7 |
| 13 | Victor Radley | Lock | 9 | +5.2 |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | Interchange | 3 | -11.3 |
| 15 | Taylor Losalu | Interchange | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | Interchange | 9 | -1.6 |
| 17 | Salle Va'a | Interchange | — | — |
Out: Near-settled Roosters squad. Hugo Savala (+11.0) keeps the halfback jersey alongside Daly Cherry-Evans (+4.0).
Named Squads
04Eels — 71% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: -10.7
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | Fullback | 9 | -8.0 |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | Wing | 14 | -12.7 |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | Centre | 8 | -4.6 |
| 4 | Araz Nanva | Centre | 1 | -42.0 |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | Wing | 15 | -7.5 |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | Five-Eighth | 11 | -9.3 |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | Halfback | 12 | -13.7 |
| 8 | Sam Tuivaiti | Prop | 10 | -2.3 |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | Hooker | 16 | -5.1 |
| 10 | Jack Williams | Prop | 16 | -9.9 |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | Second Row | 12 | -6.2 |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | Second Row | 11 | -10.2 |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | Lock | 13 | -8.0 |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | Interchange | 16 | -2.4 |
| 15 | Toni Mataele | Interchange | 6 | -3.7 |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | Interchange | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Edwards | Interchange | 5 | -1.4 |
Out: Eels at 71% Best 17. Mitchell Moses returns at halfback carrying a -13.7 ±/G — the worst figure of any starting halfback in the NRL.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
Savala v Moses is the widest halfback gap of the round. Hugo Savala (+11.0) has been the Roosters' best player since taking the No. 7 — his combination with Daly Cherry-Evans (+4.0) gives the home side two organisers in form. Moses returns from injury at -13.7 ±/G, and a returning half behind a beaten pack rarely improves quickly.
The Roosters' right side stacks up. Robert Toia (+9.4) and Mark Nawaqanitawase (+7.4) run at the Eels' left edge, where Brian Kelly (-12.7) carries one of the worst ±/G figures on the sheet. James Tedesco (+7.0) remains the reliable last line and extra ball-player.
The Eels' sheet is uniformly negative — all 13 starters are in the red. Isaiah Iongi (-8.0), Ronald Volkman (-9.3) and Kitione Kautoga (-10.2) join Moses and Kelly in double-digit-adjacent territory. At 71% Best 17 some of that is availability, but the shape of the season — 6-10 — says it is mostly the team.
The counter-case is thin. The Eels won the most recent meeting 30-10, but that was at CommBank against a different Roosters spine. At Allianz, where Parramatta win 29%, the four previous results in this fixture were all double-digit Roosters wins.
Mitchell Moses is back at halfback for the Eels, but his -13.7 ±/G is the worst of any starting halfback in the NRL this season. A marquee name on the team sheet is not the same thing as a positive lever on the field.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
Predict margin +20.7 with the Roosters favoured. The PCS gap, the squad ±/G split, the halfback mismatch and the most extreme venue split of the round all point the same way. We shade slightly under the model number. Roosters by 18.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Disruption Score (DS) measures the quality-weighted impact of missing players. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R19 teamlist announcement, 10 July 2026.
SavvyPlays — NRL Analytics & Tipping · © 2026