Wests Tigers v Warriors
Koroisau out — Lanyon debuts at hooker. Squad ±/G gap of 14.0, the widest of the round. Strong tip: Warriors by 12.
SavvyPlays · 10 July 2026 · Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney · Friday 10 July · 8:00PM AEST
The Tigers lose Api Koroisau this week — their most important player and the organising heart of their attack, a Disruption Score of 3.8. Josese Lanyon, with no recorded NRL minutes, takes the No. 9 jersey. It comes at the worst possible time: the Tigers' full named squad averages -9.0 ±/G against the Warriors' +5.0 — a 14.0-point per-game gap, the widest squad-quality gap of the round.
The Warriors are 4-1 over the last five head-to-head, though the Tigers took the most recent meeting 32-14 in Auckland in R4 this season. Campbelltown is no fortress — the Tigers win just 41% there — and the CI/DS edge runs 2.7 to the visitors. Even at 71% Best 17, still missing Watene-Zelezniak, Tuivasa-Sheck, Barnett and Capewell, the Warriors' depth is too strong. Strong tip: Warriors by 12.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01Warriors by 12
Three signals combine for a Strong tip on the Warriors. First, the squad-quality gap: Warriors +5.0 ±/G across their named squad against the Tigers' -9.0 — a 14.0-point per-game spread, the widest of any R19 matchup. The model agrees, putting the margin at -12.1 against the home side.
Second, the Koroisau blow. The Tigers' hooker is their best player and his absence (DS 3.8) is amplified by the replacement: Josese Lanyon has no recorded NRL minutes. Third, the venue is no shield — the Tigers win just 41% of their games at Campbelltown, and the CI/DS edge of 2.7 sits with the visitors. The Warriors are 4-1 over the last five meetings. Strong call: Warriors by 12.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
Campbelltown Sports Stadium gives the Tigers no real edge — they win just 41% of their matches there, one of the weakest home-venue records of any side in this round.
The Warriors hold a 4-1 edge over the last five meetings, but the one Tigers win is the most recent: a 32-14 away victory in Auckland in R4 this season. Before that the Warriors had won four straight — 34-14 (2025 R19), 26-24 (2025 R4), 28-16 (2024 R21) and 30-22 (2023 R24). The R4 result came with Koroisau on the field; this week the Tigers must try to repeat it without him.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Warriors v Wests Tigers | 14-32 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R19 | Warriors v Wests Tigers | 34-14 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R4 | Wests Tigers v Warriors | 24-26 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R21 | Warriors v Wests Tigers | 28-16 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R24 | Wests Tigers v Warriors | 22-30 | Warriors |
Named Squads
03Wests Tigers — DS 3.8 — Squad avg ±/G: -3.6
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | Fullback | 13 | -1.0 |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | Wing | 16 | -6.1 |
| 3 | Heamasi Makasini | Centre | 9 | -1.4 |
| 4 | Starford To'a | Centre | 7 | -7.0 |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | Wing | 10 | -6.2 |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | Five-Eighth | 12 | -10.5 |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | Halfback | 10 | +5.6 |
| 8 | Terrell May | Prop | 7 | -15.1 |
| 9 | Josese Lanyon | Hooker | — | — |
| 10 | Bunty Afoa | Prop | 5 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | Second Row | 8 | +7.2 |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | Second Row | 7 | -9.1 |
| 13 | Alex Twal | Lock | 11 | +1.2 |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | Interchange | 10 | -10.1 |
| 15 | Fonua Pole | Interchange | 16 | -6.1 |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | Interchange | 15 | -6.2 |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | Interchange | 5 | -9.2 |
Out: Api Koroisau ruled out this week (DS 3.8) — the Tigers' most important player. Josese Lanyon, with no recorded NRL minutes, takes the No. 9 jersey.
Named Squads
04Warriors — 71% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: +8.3
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | Fullback | 14 | +10.7 |
| 2 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | Wing | 7 | +2.9 |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | Centre | 11 | +14.9 |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | Centre | 10 | +8.0 |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | Wing | 7 | +7.1 |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | Five-Eighth | 12 | +11.7 |
| 7 | Maire Martin | Halfback | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | Prop | 12 | +6.2 |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | Hooker | 15 | +10.3 |
| 10 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | Prop | 10 | +4.6 |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | Second Row | 11 | +7.5 |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | Second Row | 14 | +8.4 |
| 13 | Erin Clark | Lock | 15 | +7.9 |
| 14 | Sam Healey | Interchange | 13 | +2.5 |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | Interchange | 5 | +4.0 |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | Interchange | 14 | +8.3 |
| 17 | Marata Niukore | Interchange | 8 | +0.8 |
Out: Warriors at 71% Best 17 — still missing Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Mitch Barnett and Kurt Capewell — but the named squad still averages +5.0 ±/G across all listed players.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
The hooker mismatch defines the game. Api Koroisau out for a debutant-level replacement in Josese Lanyon, while the Warriors field Wayde Egan at +10.3 ±/G. Ruck speed and middle service should run one way all night.
The Warriors' spine is humming. Chanel Harris-Tavita (+11.7) and Taine Tuaupiki (+10.7) are both in career-best form, and Ali Leiataua (+14.9) is the best centre number named in this fixture. Maire Martin at halfback is the one unknown — no recorded NRL minutes — but he is surrounded by positives.
The Tigers' problems run deeper than the hooker. Jarome Luai (-10.5) and Terrell May (-15.1) carry two of the worst ±/G figures of any starters in the round. Adam Doueihi (+5.6) and Samuela Fainu (+7.2) are the only genuine positive levers in the 13.
The counter-case: the Tigers won the most recent meeting 32-14 in Auckland this season, and the Warriors are still missing four of their Best 17. But that R4 win was built on a Koroisau-led ruck attack the Tigers cannot field this week.
A Disruption Score of 3.8 understates the football impact. Koroisau is the Tigers' best player and their entire middle-third attack routes through him. His replacement has no recorded NRL minutes, against a Warriors side whose hooker is running at +10.3 ±/G.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
Predict margin -12.1 with the Warriors favoured. The squad-quality gap (14.0 points per game), the Koroisau absence, the weak Campbelltown home record and the CI/DS edge all point the same way. Warriors by 12.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Disruption Score (DS) measures the quality-weighted impact of missing players. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R19 teamlist announcement, 10 July 2026.
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