Round 20 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Roosters v Storm

The Storm arrive without Munster and Hughes; the Roosters without Tedesco. The disruption ledger favours the home side. Lean tip: Roosters by 6.

SavvyPlays · 15 July 2026 · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Friday 17 July · 8:00PM AEST

This is a disruption story on both sides. The Storm lose both first-choice halves in one week — Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes are new omissions, a combined Disruption Score of 11.8 — with Tyran Wishart (-1.6) and Trent Toelau (-7.7) stepping in. The Roosters lose James Tedesco (DS 4.5), handing the fullback jersey to Cody Ramsey (-8.0).

When both sides are disrupted, our framework says trust the consistency and disruption numbers — and they favour the Roosters by 4.0. The model margin is +10.1 and Allianz Stadium runs at 63% for the home side. Against that: the Storm have won four of the last five meetings and their pack is intact. Lean tip: Roosters by 6.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Roosters by 6

Both teams are wounded, so the question is who is wounded worse — and losing both halves beats losing a fullback. The Storm's Disruption Score of 11.8 (Munster and Hughes out together) is more than double the Roosters' 4.5 for Tedesco, and the combined CI/DS ledger favours the home side by 4.0. Add a +10.1 model margin and a 63% win rate at Allianz and the case is there.

Why only a Lean? Because the Storm's head-to-head dominance is real — four wins in the last five meetings, including 18-4 in Round 13 this season — and their pack, with Stefano Utoikamanu, Josh King and Harry Grant, is fully intact. A Melbourne side minus its stars is still a Melbourne side. Lean tip: Roosters by 6.

+10.1

Predict Margin

11.8

Storm DS

4.5

Roosters DS

Roosters +4.0

CI/DS Edge

63%

Allianz Win Rate

Storm 4-1

H2H (Last 5)

Venue & Head-to-Head

02Venue & Head-to-Head

The recent history is emphatic: the Storm have won four of the last five, including 18-4 at AAMI Park in Round 13 this season, 34-30 at Allianz in 2025, and 48-18 and 24-8 in 2024. The Roosters' one win in the stretch was a big one — 40-10 in Melbourne in Round 26 last year.

The venue leans the other way: the Roosters win 63% at Allianz Stadium — and four of the last five meetings were played in Melbourne. This week the fixture is on the Roosters' side of the draw.

Year	Round	Match	Score	Winner
2026	R13	Storm v Roosters	18-4	Storm
2025	R26	Storm v Roosters	10-40	Roosters
2025	R21	Roosters v Storm	30-34	Storm
2024	R30	Storm v Roosters	48-18	Storm
2024	R20	Storm v Roosters	24-8	Storm

Named Squads

03Roosters — DS 4.5 — Squad avg ±/G: +4.6

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Cody Ramsey	Fullback	5	-8.0
2	Daniel Tupou	Wing	11	+8.1
3	Billy Smith	Centre	8	-1.4
4	Hugo Savala	Centre	12	+11.4
5	Mark Nawaqanitawase	Wing	11	+8.2
6	Daly Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	16	+4.8
7	Sam Walker	Halfback	14	+7.0
8	Naufahu Whyte	Prop	16	+2.5
9	Reece Robson	Hooker	12	+8.8
10	Spencer Leniu	Prop	12	+2.2
11	Nat Butcher	Second Row	14	+5.1
12	Siua Wong	Second Row	16	+5.4
13	Victor Radley	Lock	10	+6.3
14	Connor Watson	Interchange	16	+3.6
15	Salesi Foketi	Interchange	14	+0.4
16	Egan Butcher	Interchange	10	-1.4
17	Taylor Losalu	Interchange	1	+0.0

Out: James Tedesco a new omission this week (DS 4.5). Cody Ramsey (-8.0) takes the fullback jersey.

Named Squads

04Storm — DS 11.8 — Squad avg ±/G: -0.7

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Sualauvi Faalogo	Fullback	17	-0.1
2	Will Warbrick	Wing	17	-0.8
3	Jack Howarth	Centre	14	+4.9
4	Nick Meaney	Centre	13	-0.8
5	Moses Leo	Wing	11	+6.0
6	Tyran Wishart	Five-Eighth	10	-1.6
7	Trent Toelau	Halfback	6	-7.7
8	Stefano Utoikamanu	Prop	17	+2.8
9	Harry Grant	Hooker	16	+1.0
10	Josh King	Prop	17	+2.0
11	Cooper Clarke	Second Row	17	-4.7
12	Oryn Keeley	Second Row	1	-6.0
13	Trent Loiero	Lock	14	-4.0
14	Gabriel Satrick	Interchange	—	—
15	Jack Hetherington	Interchange	7	+0.6
16	Josiah Pahulu	Interchange	1	-12.0
17	Alec MacDonald	Interchange	13	-6.0

Out: Both first-choice halves are new omissions — Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes (combined DS 11.8). Tyran Wishart (-1.6) and Trent Toelau (-7.7) step into the halves.

Match Analysis

05Key Matchups & Narratives

The Roosters' spine still functions without Tedesco. Sam Walker (+7.0) and Daly Cherry-Evans (+4.8) are established, Reece Robson (+8.8) is having a fine season, and Hugo Savala (+11.4) is their form player. The concern is at the back: Cody Ramsey's -8.0 across five games is the worst number in their named thirteen.

Melbourne's replacement halves are a bigger drop. Wishart (-1.6) is a capable utility, but Toelau (-7.7 in six games) inherits the chief playmaking role against a top-four defence. Harry Grant will have to carry more of the attack than at any point this season.

Where the Storm can win it is up front: Utoikamanu (+2.8), King (+2.0) and Jack Howarth (+4.9) give them a platform, and the Roosters' middle numbers (Whyte +2.5, Leniu +2.2) are matchable. If Melbourne turn it into an arm wrestle, the missing halves matter less.

When Both Teams Are Disrupted, Trust CI/DS

Our framework's rule for double-disruption games is to lean on the consistency and disruption ledger rather than season-long form. This week it reads: Storm DS 11.8 (both halves), Roosters DS 4.5 (fullback), net edge Roosters +4.0.

Prediction

06Prediction Breakdown

The model margin is +10.1, but this game is about the disruption ledger: 11.8 against 4.5, a net 4.0 edge to the Roosters, at a ground they win 63% of the time. The Storm's 4-1 head-to-head run and intact pack keep the confidence at Lean rather than Strong. Roosters by 6.

11-5

Roosters Record

8-9

Storm Record